Scully's Super Bowl LIV preview

Super Bowl LIV features a compelling matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. Miami will host the championship game for a record 11th time, and kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET.

Here are three key elements of Super Bowl LIV.

Mahomes vs. the San Francisco defense

Last season quarterback Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to the AFC Championship Game and earned MVP honors in his first full year as starter. This season did not go as smoothly, as an early ankle injury affected his play and a dislocated kneecap sidelined him for two games in October, but he was spectacular down the stretch. The Chiefs have won eight straight games, with an average win margin of 16.1.

Mahomes threw for 614 combined yards, eight touchdowns, and no interceptions in the Chiefs’ playoff wins this season, and he has incredible weapons at his disposal. Tight end Travis Kelce is more than a capable counterpart to San Francisco’s All-Pro George Kittle, and caught 10 passes for 134 yards and three touchdowns in the Divisional Round win over Houston, and Kansas City has a huge edge at wide receiver, with Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman, and Demarcus Robinson.

San Francisco recorded nine sacks in two playoff wins and will try to keep Mahomes off balance with pressure. The 49ers have the defensive line to do so without blitzing, with this year’s addition of Nick Bosa (draft) and Dee Ford (free agency) to pair with outstanding tackles, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead. San Francisco had the No. 1 ranked pass defense (169.2 yards per game during regular season) because of its ability to wreak havoc up front. The defensive line accounted for 41 of the team’s 48 sacks.

They must contain, though, as Mahomes rushed for more than 50 yards in both playoff wins, but the Niners have a lot more speed and talent defensively than Houston and Tennessee. The 49ers would stamp themselves as one of the greatest defenses of the era if they contain Mahomes in the Super Bowl.

49ers run game vs. the Chiefs defense

San Francisco had the second-best rushing offense behind Baltimore, and featured three rushers who gained 500 yards or more (Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida). Kyle Shanahan’s offense brilliantly schemes run plays, and the Niners have been unstoppable in the postseason, with 471 combined rushing yards.

Kansas City does not rely on its defense like San Francisco, but the Chiefs must slow down the ground game, because they don’t want the Niners to possess the ball for nearly 40 minutes, like they did against Minnesota. The Kansas City statistical rankings are not good, because of how poorly the Chiefs performed over the first 2 1/2 months of the season, but they enter this game in good defensive form. They held Derrick Henry (377 combined rushing yards in the first two playoff rounds) to only 69 rushing yards in the AFC Championship Game, a significant accomplishment, and they will look to make Jimmy Garoppolo beat them with his arm.

Jimmy Garoppolo

Garoppolo’s high-water mark came against New Orleans on Dec. 1 when he threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns in a high-scoring win. In five games since, he has thrown a total of three touchdowns and three interceptions. Garoppolo did not play well against Minnesota, with three passes that could’ve been intercepted (two were dropped), and the Niners have gone away from the passing game over the last six quarters. Garoppolo threw only eight passes against Green Bay.

Prediction 

Kansas City’s point total will decide the outcome. San Francisco’s confidence in its quarterback is at a season-low level, and I don’t think Garoppolo is a light switch, that can suddenly revert back to his New Orleans form. The Niners have a viable chance to win if they can keep the Chiefs under 30 points, but that’s not going to happen.

Kansas City’s offense is so powerful. Mahomes has the foot speed to elude an aggressive pass rush, and he will exploit weaknesses in San Francisco’s secondary. That will put too much pressure on the Niners. Kansas City will win Super Bowl LIV going away.

Super Bowl free pick: Kansas City -1.5

---

Whether you’re here for the football or just for the commercials, BetAmerica has you covered with a dizzying array of Super Bowl odds and props.