Tom Brady's NFL MVP odds have tanked

Tom Brady has won the NFL MVP Award three times in his celebrated career, but it is unlikely he’ll add a fourth to his mantle this year. Let's dig into the reasons why.

Odds to win the NFL MVP Award

Father Time has caught up with Brady

At 42 Brady is finally showing some signs of age. The Patriots quarterback has completed just 61.1% of his passes in 2019, which would be his lowest output since 2013. His 6.7 yards per attempt and 88.2 passer rating would also represent his worst numbers since 2013, if the season ended today. Brady is trending the wrong way too—over his last four games (2-2 record), the six-time Super Bowl winner has completed only 54.8% of his throws for a modest 5.7 yards per attempt.

“Touchdown Tom” has seen his MVP odds move from +1600 at the start of the season to +15000. If not for the spectacular defense behind him (12.1 points allowed per game, the best league), New England would only be a fringe contender for its seventh Super Bowl title.

Retirement is looming

Rumors have been swirling about Brady’s retirement for years, but with his contract expiring at the end of the season, it’s a good bet the Hall of Fame-bound quarterback will call it a career, at least according to NBC Sports Boston's Tom Curran.

“The team had every chance the past few years to give Brady an extension that would allow him to play until he’s 45—a goal he’s stated on numerous occasions,” Curran wrote Wednesday. “They passed on it repeatedly.”

Jackson has emerged as the clear cut favorite

There may never be another player like Brady (or a dynasty like the Patriots), but it’s possible we are witnessing the passing of the baton. Lamar Jackson, now the runaway favorite to win the MVP Award at -360, has been turning heads during his sophomore campaign. Not only has he completed 66.5% of his passes for 7.9 yards per attempt, with a 25-5 touchdown-interception ratio, he has also run for 977 yards, which makes him the seventh-leading rusher in the NFL. We’ll see if he can sustain this kind of production over the next decade or not.

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