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The Dolphins are the one team no one wants to face in the NFL playoffs

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire)

Ashley Anderson

December 8th, 2020

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Yes, you read the headline correctly.

The Miami Dolphins, a team projected to finish 0-16 just a year ago, are not only a playoff hopeful, but a team every AFC contender should fear.

Before you question my sanity, allow me to explain.

While Miami isn’t guaranteed to make the playoffs, the 8-4 Dolphins maintain a fairly good shot at a wild card spot.

Kansas City and AFC East-leading Buffalo are the two most difficult games remaining on the Dolphins' schedule. Even with losses against those two, the Dolphins hold an 84% chance to reach the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight, if they defeat New England (6-6) at home and the tumbling Raiders (7-5) on the road.

Dolphins boast a dangerously good defense

A win against Kansas City isn’t completely out of the question, either. The defending Super Bowl champion is favored by 7.5 points on the road, but its No. 2 scoring offense will get its toughest matchup to date against the second-best scoring defense in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins are the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense through Week 8: allowing 130 points in 7 games

In 2019, Miami allowed more points (133) in their first three games and allowed 238 points in their first seven. #RideTheWave

— Locked On Dolphins (@LockedOnPhins) November 2, 2020

This Miami defense isn’t just strong. It’s championship-caliber.

In an analysis of past Super Bowl winners, from 2009 to 2019, each team ranked in the top 15 in opponent completion percentage and in the top 12 in takeaways per game. Since 2013, every Super Bowl champion also ranked in the top seven in scoring defense.

Heading into Super Bowl LIV in 2020, San Francisco fit every trend, while Kansas City ranked just slightly outside the top 12 in takeaways and was 10th in scoring defense.

As of Week 13, the Dolphins are fourth in opponent completion percentage (62.38%), second in takeaways per game (1.8), and second in opponent points per game (17.7).

Miami's defense by the numbers

Opp. points per gameOpp. completion %Opp. third-down conversion % Opp. red-zone scoring %Takeaways per gameSacks per game
17.7 (2nd)
62.38% (4th)
32.19% (1st)
58.33% (9th)
1.8 (2nd)
2.6 (10th)

I’m not saying Miami is bound for the Super Bowl, but based on the statistics above, its defense is certainly dangerous enough to upset an opponent in the closing games of the regular season and in the playoffs.

The giant slayer of 2020

The Dolphins have already proven they can beat some of the top teams in the NFC.

The Dolphins are 3-1 against the NFC West, with their only loss a 31-23 defeat against 8-4 Seattle.

Miami destroyed a hobbled San Francisco team, 43-17, in Week 5, and with rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa running the offense, it defeated NFC West leader Los Angeles, 28-17, and Arizona, 34-31.

#Dolphins are scoring on Offense, Defense, Special Teams.

88-yard punt return touchdown and 21-7 lead over the #Rams https://t.co/UQ96V5JhFn

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 1, 2020

In the latter two games, defense and special teams played a key role, as the Dolphins ran back two fumbles for scores and returned a punt for a touchdown.

Miami, which ranks first in opponent third-down conversion percentage, also held the Rams and Cardinals to a combined 12-of-29 on third down.

Miami’s playoff hopes

If the postseason were to start today, Miami would get the No. 6 seed and face the No. 3 Bills.

An updated look at the Playoff Picture in the AFC. Pittsburgh still reigns in the AFC North, but the Browns hold the top Wild Card spot. pic.twitter.com/Lq5iC9Bkeu

— clevelanddotcom (@clevelanddotcom) December 8, 2020

Buffalo barely beat its division rival, 31-28, in Week 2 and might see a much tougher fight in Week 17.

While the Dolphins’ offense is far less daunting — with a rookie quarterback still breaking in and a bottom 10 rushing attack — the defense more than makes up for the mediocrity.

The Miami defense has already upended some of the NFL's most dynamic offenses and might do it again against the mighty Chiefs next week.

Miami might not win a game in the postseason, but should it earn a bid, its defense will batter and bruise its opponent.

The team that no one expected to win a game last season is now a team no one should want to face, especially in the playoffs.


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