SNF Week 10: Ravens vs. Patriots odds, preview, and pick

The Baltimore Ravens (6-2) will visit Gillette Stadium as considerable favorites over the New England Patriots (3-5) this Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). Will Lamar Jackson and company reward their backers, or is there a better bet on the board? Here’s our wagering preview.

The Ravens are rolling, while the Patriots are toiling

The Ravens are 4-1 over their last five games, with their lone loss coming by four points to the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers. They’ve outscored their opponents 136-86 over this span.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are a shell of their former selves. They had lost four straight games (outscored 101-49) heading into their Monday Night Football matchup with the winless New York Jets, and they needed a last-second field goal just to walk away with a victory.

A tale of two (mobile) quarterbacks

Baltimore is tops in the NFL in rushing yards per game (169.6), and quarterback Lamar Jackson is a big reason why. The Louisville product has accounted for a team-leading 469 yards on the ground in 2020, with running backs Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, and Mark Ingram having each eclipsed the 200-yard mark this season.

The Ravens should run roughshod over New England’s 25th-rated run stoppers (131 yards allowed per game), opening things up for Jackson through the air, should he need to go there.

Meanwhile, Patriots quarterback Cam Newton has averaged almost 45 yards per game on the ground, and has accounted for a team-leading eight touchdowns. Only tailbacks Dalvin Cook (12) and Todd Gurley (nine) have more rushing touchdowns than the former league MVP.

Running back Damien Harris has been a revelation for New England since being activated on Oct. 5. He’s averaged 70 yards per game over five contests.

Both defenses are ailing

Ravens cornerback Jimmy Smith (ankle), linebacker Matthew Judon (calf) and defensive end Calais Campbell (calf) all failed to find the practice field on Wednesday.

As for the Patriots, 18 players were listed as "limited" for Wednesday’s practice, including linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (groin), defensive lineman Lawrence Guy (shoulder/elbow/knee), and cornerback Stephon Gilmore (knee).

Going "Over" the trends

The Over is 7-3 in the Ravens’ last 10 games as a road favorite as well as the Patriots’ last 10 games as an underdog. New England has exceeded the total in four of their last five games following a straight-up victory.

Predicted score: Ravens 31, Patriots 20

NFL picks: Over, Ravens spread

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