Scully’s Week 7 NFL picks: Playing against Los Angeles teams

The Rams and Chargers have not been healthy, and both have lost thrice over the last month. The challenges will continue in Week 7. We'll side with some home teams this week, and other plays include the improving Jets and surging Arizona. Let’s keep the momentum rolling after a 4-1 ATS Week 6!

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Despite a four-game losing streak, Atlanta is the play in favorable home spot. Los Angeles will travel across the country with a banged-up squad and has surrendered 105 points it its last three games. The Rams swapped cornerbacks this week—subtracting Marcus Peters and adding Jalen Ramsey—but Ramsey has not played in about a month and must learn a new role in Wade Phillips’ defense. We're not expecting immediate dividends for a team missing too many key parts.

Cornerback Aqib Talib and left guard Joe Notebloom were lost last week and top safety John Johnson (arguably the second-best defensive player this season) is likely out with a shoulder injury. Los Angeles will not bring a healthy first- or second-string running back to Atlanta, and the offense relies on a viable ground game. Quarterback Jared Goff only went 13-of-24 for 78 passing yards last week. The Rams still defend the run, but their secondary has declined significantly, with 1,003 passing yards and eight touchdowns allowing over the last three weeks.

This matchup plays to pass-oriented Atlanta’s strength, and the Rams may continue to feel the effects of personnel losses. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan exits a sharp performance, where he completed 30-of-36 passes for 341 yards, with four touchdowns and zero interceptions, and has the weapons to excel again.

Pick: Atlanta +3

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-3), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FOX

Arizona has found a rhythm in two straight wins, and defense is a glaring liability for New York (1-4 ATS last five home games). Giants quarterback Daniel Jones has certainly provided a spark to an improved offense, but New York must match points with Kyler Murray.

The Cardinals have covered three straight on the road and are 4-2 ATS for the season. Murray led the team to 20 first-half points last week, orchestrated a fourth-quarter drive to retake the lead and wound up with 340 passing yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. The rookie quarterback has come a long way since the start of the season and Arizona is running the ball effectively, as well (368 combined rushing yards the last two weeks). The Giants stink defensively (31st against he pass), and the Cardinals can win straight up.

Pick: Arizona +3

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5), Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Indianapolis is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games on the front end of back-to-back home games and got healthy during its bye week. Both teams are exiting wins at Kansas City, and Houston will play the second of back-to-back road games (0-3-1 ATS last two years).

We have plenty of respect for MVP candidate Deshawn Watson, but the Texans have had their way against suspect defenses. Points will be harder to come by against an Indianapolis defense that is starting to find its footing. Houston can still be pedestrian at times offensively—the Texans only scored a combined 23 points against Carolina and Jacksonville in their last two tests against decent stop units—and the Colts know how to defend their divisional rival (4-1 ATS in their last five meetings).

The Colts enter with a 4-0 straight-up and ATS record in their last four AFC South games and really found their momentum at the midseason point last year, when they reeled off five straight wins. We're expecting an optimal performance off the bye.

Pick: Indianapolis -1.5

Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee (-2.5), Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS

Both teams are struggling to score, but Tennessee still plays solid defense (fifth in points allowed and eighth in total defense). The Chargers have deteriorated significantly since the start of the season, with injuries playing a major role as they’ve become soft on both sides of the ball. Los Angeles was held scoreless in the first half the last two weeks, with defenders constantly in the backfield, and gave up 315 rushing yards in those contests. It is unrealistic to expect a turnaround against the Titans defense.

Tennessee has offensive woes and took the bagel last week, but the injury-ravaged Chargers are the tonic for a turnaround. Look for running back Derrick Henry to have a good game, and Tennessee should dominate in rushing yards, as Los Angeles has been held to fewer than 80 rushing yards in four straight games (including a win over Miami). The Chargers committed a combined six turnovers the last two weeks and only scored 24 total points offensively.

Pick: Tennessee -2.5

New England (-9.5) at New York Jets, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Middle-of-the-road teams get hot for short windows every season, and this is the opportune time to back the Jets. New York enters with a defensive swagger after it made Dallas earn every yard last week, and the offense finally delivered in a much-needed home win. The Jets have gotten key players back on both sides of the ball since they played New England only three games ago, and defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will have a strategy to slow down the Patriots’ short-passing offense.

Fullback has been an important part of New England’s offense for years, and Jakob Johnson was the second one to go down last week, a loss that could negatively affect the rushing game and pass blocking schemes in the short term. The Patriots are thin at wide receiver, with Julian Edelman reportedly playing with cracked ribs, and when Josh Gordon hurt his knee last week, Tom Brady wound up throwing to undrafted free agents Jakobi Meyers and Gunner Olszewski. It did not matter against the Giants, but the Jets are significantly better defensively. New England was in a similar position three weeks ago, when the Patriots were nursing injuries on the road against a defensive-minded divisional foe, and they recorded 224 total yards in six-point win over Buffalo.

The Jets are 5-1 ATS against New England in their last six home games. Jets quarterback Sam Darnold turned in strong showing against a top 10 defense last week, and we're anticipating a low-scoring game that could go either way.

Pick: New York Jets +9.5

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James Scully's 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 7: 16-14 (4-1 last week)