Scott Shapiro's Week 14 NFL Six Pack
We are at the quarter pole in the 2019 National Football League season, and as they turn for home, it is Lamar Jackson and the Ravens who are the current favorites (+250 on BetAmerica) to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy in Miami on February 2.
There is still a ton of football to play, but it has been quite a run by John Harbaugh’s squad over the past two months. I look forward to seeing whether they can keep things going, or if they perhaps are peaking too early.
Week 14 features a number of important games and of course a few duds. Hopefully I can turn things around after a couple of poor efforts the last two Sundays. All games previewed are Sunday.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
In a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will head to Foxborough to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots.
The Chiefs come in feeling good about themselves, after a 40-9 rout the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 13, but they only gained 259 yards on offense. Their high-powered attack has not clicked quite like it did in 2018, but they are as healthy as they have been in some time, and they'll face a much tougher matchup than they encountered at home last week.
The Patriots enter off a road loss in Houston, where they looked a step slow on defense against Deshaun Watson and the Texans. Perhaps it was because a good deal of their roster was dealing with flu-like symptoms, but regardless of why they failed to perform at their best in Week 13, I expect them to rebound in a crucial AFC contest that could determine a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs.
The Chiefs defense has played better of late, but it is still quite vulnerable, especially against the run, where they rank 30th in the NFL through 12 games (141.3 yards per game, 5.1 yards per carry). New England’s running game is way down from a year ago, but look for the Patriots to get the ball to Sony Michel early and often. They'll attempt to push around a Kansas City team that still has not shown it can play well in a battle of physicality.
Pick: New England -3
Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Tampa Bay heads home after a pair of double-digit victories on the road. The Buccaneers will take on an Indianapolis team that has lost two key AFC South contests in a row and now finds itself out of the playoffs, as the standings sit today, with just four games to play.
In last week’s divisional battle at home against the Titans, the Colts played pretty well, but Jacoby Brissett uncharacteristically threw two interceptions, and Adam Vinatieri had two field goals blocked, including one late in the fourth quarter that would have given them the lead. The block instead resulted in a go-ahead score for Tennessee, via a 63-yard return for a touchdown.
The Titans just swung the game on a blocked kick!
— USA TODAY NFL (@usatodaynfl) December 1, 2019
(Via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/SiF6VUr4eZ
A quick glance suggests the Bucs are a team on the rise, and the Colts are fading, but Tampa has played the Falcons and Jaguars in its last two, while Indy has played two teams with a winning record in Houston and Tennessee.
I prefer the desperate team still fighting for its life, over a Tampa squad that is 0-4 against the spread at Raymond James Stadium in 2019 and 3-8 ATS as home favorites over the last three years.
Pick: Indianapolis +3
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Do not look now, but after they lost their first seven games, the Dolphins have rallied behind head coach Brian Flores and quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to win three of their last five.
Miami overcame a 14-point deficit Sunday to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 37-31. They'll now travel to the Northeast to take on a Jets team that had the wind taken out of its sails in Cincinnati, which came after three wins in a row to end November.
With safety Jamal Adams likely to miss the game with an ankle injury, Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker should continue to connect regularly for big plays down the field. The Dolphins will keep it close and maybe even pull another one out.
DeVante Parker wants all the passes. pic.twitter.com/GjtEkqObFH
— The Phinsider (@thephinsider) December 1, 2019
Pick: Miami +5
San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-2.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX
In an extremely important tussle in the NFC, the 49ers will play their second tough road game in a row against a New Orleans squad on extra rest.
The Niners front four should control things against a Saints offense that will be without left guard Andrus Peat and potentially left tackle Terron Armstead. On the other side of the ball, the Saints defense should continue to play at an elite level against a Niners’ offense that loves to run the ball and grind the clock in close games. This was never clearer than in their Week 13 game at Baltimore, where they consistently ran the play clock down in an effort to limit the opposition’s plays.
This looks like the first to 20 gets the victory, in a battle between two of the NFL’s best defenses.
Pick: Under 44.5
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-1), 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
There is no doubt Seattle has been a better team than the defending NFC champions this season, but the Rams are in a near must-win spot Sunday night.
Sean McVay’s team got a confidence booster with a 34-7 beatdown of the Cardinals in Week 13 and should be ready for another strong effort against a Seahawks team that has won five straight games and sits atop the NFC West at 10-2.
Seattle heads to Southern California on short rest after a big win Monday night against Minnesota. Russell Wilson has been awesome, and the Seahawks have perfected the art of winning close games, but I like the Rams' chances with their backs against the wall.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams -1
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS
Houston has rebounded nicely since it got crushed by the Ravens in Week 11, 41-7. The Texans gutted out a victory at home against the Colts, then handled the Patriots last week. They should be able to make it three straight at NRG Stadium, but this one may be closer than expected.
The Texans come off of three straight games against quality competition and have not exactly thrived as a home favorite. They are just 1-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and could be a bit flat against a team they know they should beat.
Denver won in rookie quarterback Drew Lock’s first NFL start, and even though the Broncos are 4-8, they have kept most of their games close.
Pick: Denver +9.5
Scott Shapiro’s 2019 NFL record ATS on BetAmerica heading into Week 14: 49-45-1 (Last week: 3-6)
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