Rams vs. Bucs: The best betting props for MNF

Week 11 of the NFL season finishes up with a matchup of two Super Bowl hopefuls as the Los Angeles Rams travel to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers.

The Rams are coming off a big divisional win over the Seattle Seahawks, while the Buccaneers are back in primetime having lost two of their three such games this season.

Here are the three best betting props for the Week 11 Monday Night Football showdown between the Rams and Buccaneers.

Tom Brady passing yards

The GOAT is back in primetime for the fourth time this season and the 75th time in his career. Tom Brady has historically shined in these games, compiling a 51-23 record overall. However, his recent primetime results have not been pretty. This season, he is 1-2 and has averaged just 247 passing yards in those three games.

In 2019, Brady went 2-3 and averaged 282 yards per game in five primetime games. In all games this season, Brady is averaging 273.9 passing yards per game. Currently, this number is sitting at 293.5 passing yards.

The Rams' pass defense is the third best in the NFL in yards allowed. They only allow 199.7 passing yards per game and only have allowed one player to reach 300 passing yards on them. That was Josh Allen of the Bills in Week 3.

The combination of Brady’s poor recent history in primetime mixed with this Rams' stellar pass defense leads me to favor the Under here heavily.

Pick: Under 293.5 passing yards (-115)

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Jared Goff passing touchdowns

Jared Goff will be looking to get some revenge on his counterpart in this one from Super Bowl LIII, where he lost 13-3. He also lost to Brady in his rookie season in an ugly game, 26-10. However, in his only career game against the Bucs last year, Goff managed to throw for 517 yards and two touchdowns.

Goff only has five multi-touchdown games this season, but he has eight touchdowns in his four career Monday Night Football games, and 25 touchdowns in his 16 career primetime games.

The Bucs' defense has had an excellent season, but they are mediocre in terms of passing touchdowns allowed. They are 17th in the NFL, allowing 17 passing touchdowns, and have gone four consecutive games allowing a multi-touchdown game through the air for opposing quarterbacks. I like Goff to get at least two touchdowns through the air.

Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-160)

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Antonio Brown receptions

Tom Brady’s roommate seems to be back in full swing in this offense. Brown has 13 targets and 10 catches in his two appearances. He also has a great history against the Rams, as he averages seven receptions per game in his two career games against L.A. However, it should be noted the last game he faced the Rams was in 2015.

Brown has lined up on the outside in 89% of his snaps this season. That means he will likely be facing a lot of Jalen Ramsey on Monday night. Brown has faced Ramsey for 73 routes in his career and only has 14 catches on 25 targets. Ramsey has only allowed 19 receptions against him all season on 37 targets. I expect him to be matched up with Brown a lot in this game, and to keep him off the box score.

Pick: Under 4.5 receptions (+115)