NFL Week 9 picks: Wilson continues MVP quest against Bucs

If you're looking for games between some of the NFL’s best teams, then the Sunday late afternoon slate of may not be the most enjoyable for you. However, if you're looking for some competitive games with solid betting value, then you're going to love the schedule for the 4:00 p.m. ET window!

The schedule is headlined by the 6-2 Seahawks hosting a 2-5 Buccaneers team in turmoil, but it wouldn't be surprising if Seattle is caught looking ahead to next week’s big matchup. You also have two road teams in Green Bay and Cleveland who are favored to win by more than a field goal, and a close matchup between Oakland and Detroit, where the loser will likely be out of the playoff picture. We're here to break down the action and give you some help in making it a fun and profitable Sunday afternoon!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-5), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

Seattle is looking to continue their dominance against teams with losing records, as they host a Tampa Bay team trying to figure out how to stop turning over the football. Russell Wilson is putting up MVP-level numbers this season, and given how well Tampa Bay’s top-ranked rush defense has been this season, he will likely be asked to carry the load in this game. That should suit him just fine, as the Buccaneers have the second-worst pass defense in the NFL.

The Seahawks defense was gashed by the Falcons last week in the second half, and they have not gotten to the quarterback with the frequency that they have in the past. They also will be missing key corner Quandre Diggs, which should allow Mike Evans and Chris Godwin some more freedom downfield. The last time Jameis Winston traveled to the west coast, he threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns against the Rams in a Week 4 upset.

Both quarterbacks like to sling the ball around, and that should lead to a fun and exciting game, albeit not necessarily a pretty one at times. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in yards allowed. Tampa Bay has been involved in some shootouts this season, with their last five games all averaging 66.4 total points. The over has also hit in 16 of the last 21 road games played by the Buccaneers, and the trend should continue this weekend.

Free pick: Over 53

Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders (-2.5), 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

Detroit’s season has been a long version of a “what if” discussion. The 3-3-1 team has been better than their record, and could easily be 6-1 if they could simply hold onto leads, as they have blown fourth quarter leads in three of their games so far—two of them in the final twenty seconds of the game to both the Chiefs and Packers. Last week against the Giants was another example, as they led 14-0 after one quarter, but had to hold on for a one-point win after being held scoreless the rest of the game. Matthew Stafford has been outstanding this season, while the running game has been near non-existent, and he should have little trouble utilizing his multiple weapons in the passing game to pick apart a struggling Oakland secondary.

On the flip side, Oakland has been an up-and-down team that many have struggled to get a read on. They have had a pair of two-game losing streaks sandwiched around a two-game winning streak, but their schedule has been one of the toughest in the league. They now look to get back to their winning ways as they host the Lions, and are betting favorites for the first time in more than a year. They will be playing at home for the first time since September 15, which should hopefully help them cut down on their league-high defensive penalty numbers. Their offense ranks sixth in yards per snap, and they will look to tear apart a Lions’ defense that has been burned all season by big plays.

This will be a tough game to pick in regards to the spread, as both teams have been so inconsistent on defense this season. Thankfully, you don’t have to pick a winner. Sit back, enjoy the big plays, and wait for the points; the over has hit in 13 of Oakland’s last 15 games against teams from the Eastern time zone, and in 11 of Detroit’s last 15 games against AFC West teams. Oh yeah, the over has also been the winner in four of each of their last five games this season.

Free pick: Over 50.5

Green Bay Packers (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

This is a matchup of two teams going in different directions. The Chargers have won three of their eight games this season, but only once since their season-opening victory over the Colts. They were fortunate to snap a three-game losing streak last week, when the Bears literally did nearly everything they could to lose a game they should have won. However, seven of their eight games this season have been decided by less than a touchdown, showing that they simply have been unable to make the big plays (on either side of the ball) down the stretch to win. That likely led to the firing of offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt on Monday, and they are hoping to turn around their season with a huge win as Green Bay comes to town.

The Packers, on the other hand, are thriving in close matchups, having gone 4-1 this season in games decided by seven points or fewer. This includes their win over the Chiefs last week, giving them their seventh win in eight games this year, with their only loss of the year coming on a Thursday night game following a short week. Aaron Rodgers continues to be Aaron Rodgers, and he is now getting solid play from Aaron Jones and the rushing game, which bodes poorly for a Chargers defense that was dominated last week by the Bears.

I do not think a new offensive play-caller will be enough to help the Chargers here. The Packers are rolling, and are 4-0 ATS in their last four games on the road. They have also covered in six of their eight games this season, while the Chargers have lost all three of their home games this season by exactly seven points, failing to cover in any of them. The Chargers look to just be another speed bump for the Cheeseheads.

Free pick: Packers -3.5

Cleveland Browns (-3.5) at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

It has been an abysmal season in Denver, and there aren’t many signs of things improving. They have traded away Emmanuel Sanders to the 49ers, and now have lost Joe Flacco for at least a month with a neck injury. Given his play (the Broncos scored the fewest points in the league with Flacco taking snaps), it won’t be much of a drop-off to Brandon Allen, who will make his first career start on Sunday. This looks to be a game where they will play conservative on offense, and rely on their solid defense to keep them in the game against a Browns offense that leads the league in turnovers per game, and has given away more penalties, and penalty yardage, than any team in the league.

If things have been bad in Denver, they’ve been a near all-systems failure for Cleveland. Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. have publicly ripped teammates, their head coach is expected to be fired at the end of the year—if not sooner—and they now come off a humiliating loss to the Patriots that was nowhere near as close as the score may indicate.

The Browns are 1-10 in their last 11 games against the Broncos, and have lost six of their last seven visits to the Mile High City. They are also just 4-16 in their last twenty road games. Additionally, the Broncos—despite their offensive struggles—have covered the spread in three of their last four games, while the Browns have covered only twice on the year. It’s hard to see Cleveland winning this game, much less covering as a road favorite.

Free pick: Broncos +3.5

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