NFL Week 8 picks: Panthers visit 49ers in key NFC clash

We have almost reached the midway point of the NFL season, and we have a couple of big matchups in store for Week 8’s afternoon slate of games. The Carolina Panthers will look to keep pace in the NFC South as they make a trip to unbeaten San Francisco, while the Raiders will look to move above .500 as they visit a Texans team who just fell out of first place in the AFC South. In the third game of the group, the Cleveland Browns will look to end a two-game skid as they face the dominant New England Patriots in Foxborough. Join us as we break down the late afternoon action, and discuss what you need to look at as you make your bets this weekend!

Carolina Panthers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-5.5), 4:05 PM, FOX

Did you know that Kyle Allen is undefeated as a starting quarterback in the NFL? If not, then you haven’t been paying attention, because it’s all the pundits seem to be talking about. The offense is averaging 11 more points per game with him behind center, and it has people wondering if the Cam Newton era is over. However, a visit to unbeaten San Francisco will be a much tougher test than anything he has seen before. His four wins are against teams with a combined 14-14 record, the toughest of which was a 4-2 Houston team that held the Panthers to just 16 points on the road, with only one offensive touchdown.

The 49ers defense has looked good, but it’s their second ranked rushing attack that is getting all of the attention so far. That will not look to change much this weekend, as they go up against a Carolina run defense that is ranked in the bottom third in the league, allowing nearly 120 yards per contest. The 49ers rank first in rushing attempts per game and if they get it going, it allows Jimmy Garoppolo and the play-action game to move the ball very effectively, keeping their opposing offense off the field. However, if they are unable to dominate on the ground, it will free up the Panthers pass rush, which was able to sack Jameis Winston seven times and pick him off five times in their last game.

Christian McCaffrey will need to bounce back from his 31-yard performance last outing, if the Panthers hope to have any chance of winning this game. If they can do that, it should allow them to stay close and cover the spread. Carolina has lost by no more than six this year, and San Francisco’s passing attack isn’t playing the greatest right now. The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups with the 49ers, while San Francisco has covered in just four of their last 11 games against the NFC, and I like those trends to continue.

Free pick: Panthers +5.5

Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans (-6), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Coming off a huge loss to division rival Indianapolis last week, this is a big game for the Texans. It also has the highest over/under of the week in the NFL at 51.5, so oddsmakers are expecting a shootout. That bodes well for Houston, as Deshaun Watson will face a Raiders defense that looked woeful in the second half last weekend against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. After allowing Rodgers his best game of the season, they now have to try to slow down the potential MVP candidate, although he will likely be without Will Fuller again this week.

The biggest issue for the Raiders has been their defense, but the offense has also not been the best at protecting the ball. That becomes critical against a Texans defense that has played very well this season, but showed holes last week as Jacoby Brissett threw for over 300 yards and four touchdowns (which led the Texans to make a trade mid-week to help out their secondary).

If Derek Carr, who will have his healthiest offensive line in weeks, is able to take some pressure off of his defense, it will give them a chance to go on the road and steal a big win. Unfortunately, this is an Oakland team that has covered just once in their last six road games as an underdog, while Houston has won 23 of their last 31 games when favored at home. Take the Texans offense at home to do more than enough to cover.

Free pick: Texans -6

Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots (-11.5), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

The Patriots are the second biggest favorite of the weekend (behind the Rams at -13), and with good reason: you cannot throw the ball against this team. That spells massive trouble for Baker Mayfield, who leads the league with eleven interceptions thrown on the year—although many of them have not been his fault, but rather the fault of his receivers. Nonetheless, the Patriots secondary, whose 18 picks through seven games are the most in more than 20 years, will be licking their chops at the thought of facing a Browns offense that has a habit of giving the ball away like Christmas gifts.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense is going to have a nightmare trying to stop a Patriots offense that has been content to take whatever the defense gives them. Few players have ever been as adapt to killing a defense via a thousand paper cuts the way Tom Brady does, who started last week’s game against the Jets with a 16-play, 78-yard drive that saw the Jets defense on the field for nearly the first 10 minutes of the game. Given that only nine teams in the NFL allow more time of possession to their opponents than the Browns, this looks like a matchup made in hell for the road team.

Sometimes, spreads are big for a reason. In this one, the reason is pretty obvious: The Patriots are dominating, and the Browns will have little for them.

Free pick: Patriots -11.5

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