NFL Week 4 Picks: 3-0 Rams look to beat up Bucs

Week 4 of the NFL is where teams begin to separate themselves. The Sunday afternoon games feature a pair of division clashes, as the Seahawks travel to the Cardinals, and Minnesota and Chicago square off in a very important rivalry game. The Bucs will visit the Rams, fresh off their embarrassing loss, and the Jaguars will look to get back to .500 when they visit the Broncos. We have previews of all of the late afternoon games for you, along with some free picks for you to consider.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Rams (-8.5), 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Rams are the second-biggest favorite of the Week 4 slate, and with good reason. Tampa Bay is recovering from a second-half collapse that saw them blow a 28-10 halftime lead, as Daniel Jones scored a late comeback win on the road in his first NFL start. Now, the Bucs have to travel across the country to face the Rams, who are sitting at 3-0 with their defense clicking on all cylinders.

Both the Rams and Bucs have shown strong run defense this season, meaning the game will likely come down to which team can move the ball through the air more effectively. While the Rams offense has struggled at times, they have to be salivating at facing a secondary that struggled to contain the Giants’ passing attack. It’s difficult to think the Bucs can contain Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks, and Robert Woods after the performance they gave last week.

The Rams are the only team in the NFL yet to allow a completed pass traveling more than 20 yards in the air, which spells trouble for Mike Evans and company. Furthermore, the Bucs passing attack may be short-handed, as Chris Godwin is listed as questionable after missing practice on Wednesday with a hip issue.

Aqib Talib will be a tough match-up for Mike Evans. The Rams pass rush will look to get after Jameis Winston early and often, and Aaron Donald will likely be too much for the offensive line to handle.

Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS in their last six games against NFC opposition, and have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games going back to last season. Look for the Rams to force enough turnovers and make enough big plays in the passing game to turn this one into an easy win.

Pick: Rams -8.5

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, 4:05 PM EST, FOX

The Seahawks will have had a week to think about all of the mistakes they made last week, many of them self-inflicted, in a loss to the Saints. A fumble return touchdown and punt return touchdown allowed a Brees-less New Orleans team to score fewer offensive points than the Seahawks, and still win. Meanwhile, Seattle left points on the field to end the first half, and fumbled multiple times to kill promising drives.

They will look to get back on track against an Arizona Cardinals defense that is among the worst in the league. Ranked 30th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed, they will have to find a way to slow down an offense ranked in the top 10 in both yardage earned and points scored. Russell Wilson has already topped 900 yards passing with a 7:0 TD/INT ratio, and he will be ready to take advantage of a leaky Cardinals secondary.

On the opposite side, Arizona has to figure out how to protect their rookie QB. Kyler Murray has been sacked 16 times already through three weeks, a total only topped by one other player through their first three games in the last seventeen seasons. Seattle may be without their best defender so far this season (DE Qinton Jefferson is questionable), but they should be able to continue the trend of getting Murray running for his life.

Seattle has won six straight games ATS after failing to cover the week before (as they did last week), and the road team is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine match-ups between these two teams. Both of those trends should continue here.

Pick: Seahawks -5.5

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (-1.5), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

This game looks poised to be one of the closest, and perhaps lowest-scoring, games of the weekend, as two of the best defenses in the league square off. Minnesota comes into the game with a two headed monster at RB, as Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison are on pace to rush for more than 2,700 yards this season. Cook has topped 100 yards in each of his first three games, and the Vikings continued to ram the ball down Green Bay’s throat last weekend—even when they fell behind 21-0.

That attitude may be tested by the Bears defense, which ranks fifth in the NFL against the run. The Vikings will be very hesitant to put the game in the hands of Kirk Cousins, who has struggled so far this season, averaging less than 180 yards passing. However, the Bears may be without DT Akiem Hicks, who hurt his knee last week against the Redskins, perhaps giving the Vikings enough of an edge to establish the run.

On the flip side, Mitch Trubisky will look to build on the success he had last week against the Redskins. He will be facing a much superior defense than he saw last weekend, with a pass rush that will be able to limit his ability to move and get outside the pocket. This means the Bears will need to improve on a rushing attack that is ranked 18th in the league, and build on the seventh-worst time of possession number.

The trends point to the Bears, as they are 7-1 ATS in their last eight NFC North matchups. However, that one loss was a 10-3 defeat to the Packers in Week 1 at home, in a game they were favored to win by three. The Vikings should not only cover, but win outright.

Pick: Vikings +1.5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Denver Broncos (-3), 4:25 PM EST, CBS

Sacksonville is officially back, folks, and the timing couldn’t be worse for Joe Flacco. The Jaguars take their pass rush on the road a week after taking down Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota nine times in a 20-7 win, and will face a Broncos offensive line that ranks 26th in PFF’s adjusted sack ratings. In fact, the offensive tackles protecting Flacco are ranked 32nd and 63rd, respectively, in PFF’s pass block grades. Given the Broncos’ offensive struggles and turnover issues thus far in the season, those numbers bode poorly for getting their first win of the season. They will have to try to focus on running the ball, another tall task against this defense that is hitting its stride, but may be without Jalen Ramsey this weekend.

Gardner Minshew will look to get his first road win of his career, a feat he nearly pulled off against the Texans in Week 2. He may find that very difficult to do against a Broncos defense that ranks third in the league in passing yards allowed. Leonard Fournette will need to have a much better game than he did last week, where he rushed 14 times for negative-three yards, before hitting a 69-yard run late in the contest.

The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Broncos, while Denver hast failed to win their last seven home games as favorites. The Sagarin ratings actually indicate that Jacksonville should be favored by four points, so look for both trends to continue this weekend.

Pick: Jaguars +3

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