NFL Week 14: Chiefs vs. Dolphins odds, preview, and pick

Kansas City will try to claim the top seed in the AFC on Sunday when the Chiefs head to Miami to face a Dolphins team fighting for a playoff spot of their own.

Chiefs need help to clinch top spot

With the Pittsburgh Steelers relinquishing their unbeaten record last week, Kansas City is now in a tie for first in the AFC. With only the top team getting a first-round bye this season, it is a huge advantage to whomever can claim it. Kansas City has the easier schedule of the two teams, with only two potential playoff squads in their way, compared to the three for Pittsburgh.

The Chiefs currently are enjoying a seven-game win streak, but their last four wins have all been by less than a touchdown. Their scoring output has also gone down in each of the last two weeks, as the Chiefs scored just 22 points against the Broncos last week in a six-point victory. Kansas City racked up 447 yards of total offense, but failed to score a touchdown on any of its four red-zone attempts.

Harrison Butker kicked five field goals on the day, with their sole touchdown coming on a 20-yard pass late in the third quarter to give them the lead for the first time. The Chiefs held only a three-point lead for much of the fourth quarter, needing a field goal with just over a minute left to push the lead to six. That is concerning given the Broncos are just 4-8 on the season and have lost four of their last five games.

The Chiefs will need to capitalize on those chances against Miami’s solid red-zone defense. The Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest points of any team this year and have allowed just 10 points in their last two games, but they also have not seen an offense the likes of what Kansas City will throw at them.  

Dolphins looking to prove themselves

Meanwhile, Miami was expected to be in a rebuild this year and many felt it would be next year when the Dolphins made a push for a playoff spot. Instead, Tua Tagovailoa has taken the reins and has won four of his first five career starts as the Dolphins have rapidly improved from their 3-3 start on the season. Last week was by far his best passing performance, as he threw for 296 yards and a touchdown on 26-of-39 passing with no interceptions.

The most impressive part of Tagovailoa’s young career is the lack of interceptions. In fact, his only turnover this season came on his second snap of his first start, when Aaron Donald and company rudely introduced him to the league. However, he struggled in the previous start, throwing for just 83 yards and was sacked six times in a loss to the Broncos.

While the Chiefs will provide more opportunities for Tua to move the football, he will need to continue taking care of the rock, lest ball-hawks like Tyrann Mathieu get a chance to make him pay for careless throws.

The Dolphins’ defense will need to continue to play well if they want to have a shot at winning this game. The last two offenses they’ve faced were not very good, and Kyler Murray threw three touchdowns against them while rushing for another. The Chiefs have an offense with similar weapons to the Cardinals, but with a much more dangerous tight end in Travis Kelce. Miami must find a way to slow down Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill, or it will be a long day.

Kansas City vs. Miami injury report

Kansas City had a few players sick this week, but all look to be playing. Only LB Damien Wilson missed practice on Thursday, and he is questionable for the game with a knee injury.

As for the Dolphins, RB Matt Brieda and CB Jamal Perry are both on the COVID-19 list. LBs Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts are questionable with injuries. G Ereck Flowers is also questionable with an ankle injury.

Chiefs vs. Dolphins betting trends

The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in their last four games despite winning outright. They also have beaten the Dolphins just four times in their last 12 meetings. They have won their last eight road games, and 13 of their last 17 AFC games. The total has gone Under in their last two games, and in three of their last five contests.

The Dolphins have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games, winning each of those covers outright. The total has gone Under in their last three games, and in five of their last seven. It has also gone Under in five of their last six AFC contests.

Miami is having a terrific season, and Tagovailoa is playing much better than expected for a rookie. That said, Kansas City will put pressure on him to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and that high-powered offense. Tagovailoa will likely see a lot of pressure, as the Chiefs try to replicate what Denver did to shut him down. Look for the Dolphins to hang around for a while but fall apart in the end as Kansas City wins by double-digits. 

Score prediction: Kansas City 34, Miami 24

NFL picks: Chiefs -7.5, Over 50.5

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