NFL Super Bowl Sunday betting trends

We have reached the NFL season's finale, Super Bowl LV, and we have a strong data set to determine trends.

Let's break down the latest metrics from around the NFL and determine the trends you should take advantage of for Super Bowl Sunday.

Underdogs hold the money

Since Super Bowl XXXVIII (2004), the favorite is only 10-7 straight up and 6-11 against the spread. The team with the worst winning percentage for the season is 13-1 ATS.

These are some good signs for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 14-5 and a 3.5-point underdog. The Kansas City Chiefs are 16-2 and the defending champions.

This will be Tom Brady’s 10th Super Bowl appearance. In his previous nine, he has only been a definitive underdog once. In Super Bowl XXXVI, he and the Patriots defeated the St. Louis Rams as a 14-point underdog. In Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks opened as the favorite, but the game quickly moved to either pick 'em or the Patriots were slightly favored.

Follow the line movement

Since 2004, the team that gets the advantage of the line movement is 10-5 ATS. Since Super Bowl XLII (2008), the line movement has moved toward the winning side 10 out of 13 times. Only the Super Bowl L Carolina Panthers and Super Bowl XLIV Indianapolis Colts lost against the spread after the line moved toward them.

Don't underestimate the G.O.A.T.

It is not often that Brady is an underdog in any game, but when he is, he excels. This season, the Bucs are 4-1 ATS and 3-2 straight up as an underdog. Their only loss ATS was Week 1, against the New Orleans Saints. They also lost straight up to these Chiefs in Week 12.

Going back to his New England days, Brady is 10-2 ATS and 9-3 straight up as an underdog since the 2014 season. The Bucs are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games as an underdog and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record.

The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chiefs are also 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Bucs. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups. Even though this is technically a neutral-site game, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series and this game is being played in Tampa.

Total toss-up

In the history of Super Bowl totals, the Over has a slight lead (27-26). The highest total came in Super Bowl LI, between the Patriots and Falcons. That total was 57 points and the game went Over, with 62 points scored. The current total for this game is 56.5 points, so be on the lookout for a possible record high.

The Over is 4-1 in the last five playoff games where the Bucs were an underdog. It is also 23-10 in the last 33 games overall for the Bucs. The Over is 4-1 in the Chiefs last five games following a straight-up win. The Over is 7-4 in Super Bowls since Super Bowl XLVII (2013).