NFL player prop bets: Mitch Trubisky

The 2018 Chicago Bears started the season in typical Bears fashion. After they traded for All-Pro Khalil Mack and stifled the rival Green Bay Packers through three quarters, the Bears fell apart and lost in shocking (or not shocking, if you're a Bears fan) fashion. They then proceeded to go 3-3 through through their first six weeks, and all appeared destined for the status quo in Chicago.

But somewhere along the way, the Bears found a new identify. The mastermind behind it all was head coach Matt Nagy, but the engine driving the new and improved Bears is quarterback Mitch Trubisky. The former second overall pick out of North Carolina played a major role in turning the Bears from NFC North bottom-dweller to division champion, and his continued progression will be critical to whether the Bears are capable of becoming championship contenders.

But what are his prospects this year, from a gambling perspective? Let's take a look.

Over/Under 24.5 touchdown passes

When evaluating what to expect of Trubisky this year, we should be mindful of what he accomplished in 2018. In just 14 games last year, Trubisky threw for 3,223 yards and 24 touchdowns.

Assuming no bad injury luck, asking Trubisky to exceed last year's number by just one touchdown seems more than feasible. It should be expected in his third NFL season. Before looking at the number offered, I approximated the line to be 27 touchdowns. I'm taking over 24.5.

Over/Under 3,600.5 passing yards

While his touchdown number is only going to require an incremental increase, Trubisky's yardage number will require a notable 11% uptick in output. Because of this required jump in yardage and the relative lack of star power that he has to throw to, my gut tells me to bet under. In reviewing some of his 2018 season, he had two very low-output games against the Bills and Rams, in which he only threw for 135 yards and 110 yards, respectively. He also had a few big games, where he threw for 355 and 354 yards against the Lions and Buccaneers, respectively. If we remove those four games as outliers and average the rest, he sits at 226.9 yards per game. Extrapolated out to 15 games (we should assume he misses time either in Week 17 or due to minor injury at some point), he's still well short of the number.

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BetAmerica has all kinds of prop bets for the upcoming NFL regular season, but you can also get down on the final bit of preseason football this week.