NFL Picks: Melvin Gordon is back and the Broncos should be scared

This week’s late afternoon slate is quite thin, thanks to the start of the NFL’s bye weeks. Only two games will kick off during the 4:00 PM Eastern window, as the Broncos visit the Chargers and the Packers hit the road to face the Cowboys. Both games are projected to be close affairs, with each spread being less than a touchdown. That should make for some good viewing, but obviously some difficult selections when it comes time to try to make some money. Thankfully, we're here to give you some insight, and a pair of free picks, as you try to win some bets this weekend.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-6), 4:05 PM EST, CBS

After last week’s 26-24 loss at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Broncos hit the road dejected and deflated. They will visit a Chargers team coming off of a 30-15 win over the hapless Dolphins. The return of Melvin Gordon is the big headline ahead of this game, as he looks to make his debut after holding out for two months. That will help negate some of the injuries on the Chargers’ offense, with Mike Williams and Travis Benjamin both listed as questionable.

The Chargers’ run game was already going decently, as Austin Ekeler has gotten off to a terrific start. The third-year back has gained 490 yards from scrimmage on 80 touches through four games, scoring three touchdowns rushing and three more through the air. Having Gordon to share the workload with will just boost them, and will also cause the Broncos some serious headaches. Leonard Fournette ran for 225 yards (second-most in Jaguars history) on 29 carries last week, and the Broncos had absolutely no answer for him. Considering his struggles before that game, the Chargers’ duo should be licking their chops at the thought of this matchup.

As for the Broncos, last week’s loss pretty much ended any hopes they had of contending for anything this season, aside from the top pick in the draft. Joe Flacco has turned the ball over four times this season, and to make matters worse, he will likely be missing WR Emmanuel Sanders this weekend. Denver’s inability to finish drives with touchdowns continues to hurt them. Despite having run the third-most plays so far this season, they have the third-lowest scoring attack in the league.

The Chargers will look to have a balanced attack, given the weapons they may be missing from the fifth ranked passing attack in the league, and that means lots of runs and fewer chances for the Broncos to try to put anything together. Between their inefficiency, their record, and being on the road, it looks like a bad recipe for Denver to actually hang around in this game.

Free pick: Chargers -6

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-3), 4:25 PM EST, FOX

This almost became a matchup of 4-0 teams, but both the Cowboys and Packers suffered their first defeats of the season last weekend. Instead, it will have to settle for being the marquee matchup of Sunday afternoon. You have two of the best QBs in the league going head-to-head, as Aaron Rodgers leads his team against Dak Prescott, who is having a monster year ahead of possibly becoming a free agent.

One of the biggest concerns for the Cowboys is the loss of LT Tyron Smith, the anchor of the offensive line and the protector of Prescott’s blind side. Having allowed only three sacks through the first four games, the line has been arguably the biggest reason the Cowboys have had such a powerful offensive attack. The Packers two offseason additions, Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith, have combined for 7.5 sacks and 15 hits on the QB, and they will be pinning their ears back against whoever replaces Smith and possibly RT La’el Collins, who is also banged up. With Amari Cooper still dealing with an ankle issue, the Cowboys may need to rely even more on the run game against Green Bay’s poor rush defense.

As for the Packers, injuries are racking up even more on their sideline. Davante Adams, Rodgers’ top target this season, will miss the game with a toe injury, and Jamaal Williams is still in the concussion protocol. Adams’ loss is a crucial one, as he caught 10 passes for 180 yards last weekend against the Eagles, and they struggled to move the ball once he left the game. The rushing game cannot be relied on much to carry the load, as Aaron Jones has failed to top 40 yards rushing in three of his four games this season.

Green Bay has won just two of their last eleven road games, and the loss of Adams may prove way too much to overcome for an offense that simply cannot run the ball. The Cowboys will likely look to pound the rock and protect Prescott, which will help limit the scoring even more. As such, I believe the best value play here is to take the under—especially since the under has hit each of the last five games where the Packers have faced a team with a winning record.

Free pick: Under 47

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