NFL: Finding an edge betting the preseason
July 30th, 2019
The NFL preseason is an unpredictable market. That unpredictability is based on the uncertainty of player usage. With coaches and franchises ironing out their 53-man rosters, game plans exist in a bit of a "TBD" stage. Figuring out those plans before the rest of the market does can be the key to success for preseason wagering.
One of the first positions I look at when betting on a team in the preseason is quarterback. If a great quarterback already exists on the roster, there is less competition. There is little reason for the signal-caller who does see the preseason snaps to truly give 100%, and the difference between giving 95% and 100% in this league, when others are fighting to get paychecks, is very real. I'm never excited to bet on the Patriots, Packers, Falcons, Steelers or Colts in the preseason for this reason. The backup, and especially the third-string quarterback, are going to be low-contract, last-ditch options. At a place like Miami, however, both Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick will get snaps. Two "B" quarterbacks add up to be more valuable than an "A+."
Another important factor to consider when making preseason wagers is how much value the coach puts on these games. New coaches might consider preseason games as an opportunity to develop a winning culture. Other coaches perceive them as an opportunity to really get the engine running. With this in mind, I'll be intrigued to see how Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals treat their preseason games this year.
Current coaches John Harbaugh, Mike Zimmer and Pete Carroll all have notably positive records in the preseason. For various reasons these coaches win and cover in the preseason at a much higher rate than their counterparts across the league. Past results don't necessarily indicate future outcomes, however, so it's important to consider if they still value these games and are putting forth the necessary effort to win them.
Ultimately we have to remember that somebody will win and cover in every preseason game. Handicap it with some key parameters in place and you can make money just as easily (or more so), as any other game on the schedule.
The NFL preseason kicks off Thursday! Check out the markets for the first football game of the season at BetAmerica!
One of the first positions I look at when betting on a team in the preseason is quarterback. If a great quarterback already exists on the roster, there is less competition. There is little reason for the signal-caller who does see the preseason snaps to truly give 100%, and the difference between giving 95% and 100% in this league, when others are fighting to get paychecks, is very real. I'm never excited to bet on the Patriots, Packers, Falcons, Steelers or Colts in the preseason for this reason. The backup, and especially the third-string quarterback, are going to be low-contract, last-ditch options. At a place like Miami, however, both Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick will get snaps. Two "B" quarterbacks add up to be more valuable than an "A+."
Another important factor to consider when making preseason wagers is how much value the coach puts on these games. New coaches might consider preseason games as an opportunity to develop a winning culture. Other coaches perceive them as an opportunity to really get the engine running. With this in mind, I'll be intrigued to see how Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals treat their preseason games this year.
Current coaches John Harbaugh, Mike Zimmer and Pete Carroll all have notably positive records in the preseason. For various reasons these coaches win and cover in the preseason at a much higher rate than their counterparts across the league. Past results don't necessarily indicate future outcomes, however, so it's important to consider if they still value these games and are putting forth the necessary effort to win them.
Ultimately we have to remember that somebody will win and cover in every preseason game. Handicap it with some key parameters in place and you can make money just as easily (or more so), as any other game on the schedule.
The NFL preseason kicks off Thursday! Check out the markets for the first football game of the season at BetAmerica!
ADVERTISEMENT
