NFC Championship Game: Packers vs. 49ers preview and pick
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo drops back to pass against the Kansas City Chiefs. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
January 14th, 2020
Back in Week 12 of the NFL regular season, the Green Bay Packers took to the road to play the San Francisco 49ers in a prime-time matchup that many anticipated could be a preview of the NFC Championship Game. With the regular season complete and two rounds of the playoffs decided, those predictions were correct, and we find ourselves with No. 1 vs. No. 2 to earn a trip to Super Bowl LIV.
NFC Championship: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Green Bay Packers | +7.5 | +275 | O 45 |
San Francisco 49ers | -7.5 | -360 | U 45 |
The 49ers enter this game off a 27-10 win over the Vikings in the Divisional Round. They ended the regular season 13-3 overall and 9-6-1 against the spread. The Packers finished the regular season 13-3 but lost out on home field advantage because of their Week 12 loss to San Francisco. The Packers were slightly better against the spread, at 10-6 in the regular season, and also covered in their Divisional Round victory against the Seahawks, 28-23.
Part of the reason for the Packers’ troubles was a slow start (they fumbled first possession), and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga went out with injury in the first quarter. Assuming Bulaga is available in the rematch, the Green Bay offensive line will be improved. But the first game was a blowout and a mismatch. It’s hard to take much away from that matchup to give Packers supporters hope.
The 49ers dominated the Packers in Week 12
When these teams faced off in Week 12, the 49ers thrashed the Packers, 37-8. The Niners defensive line overpowered the Packers offensive line, and Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers held the ball too long. Rodgers finished 20-of-33 through the air for 104 yards. Star running back Aaron Jones was held to just 2.9 yards per rush, his fourth-worst performance of the season.Part of the reason for the Packers’ troubles was a slow start (they fumbled first possession), and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga went out with injury in the first quarter. Assuming Bulaga is available in the rematch, the Green Bay offensive line will be improved. But the first game was a blowout and a mismatch. It’s hard to take much away from that matchup to give Packers supporters hope.
The 49ers are healthy and rolling
The 49ers are clicking on all cylinders, as multiple star players have come back from injury to reinforce the ranks for their playoff drive. Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford are back, and tight end George Kittle appears to be at full strength after some nagging, midseason injuries. Head coach Kyle Shanahan is quickly becoming of the best play callers in the league, and quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was third in the NFL in yards per pass attempt in the regular season. With weapons on the outside and a full stable of running backs behind Garoppolo, Shanahan is keeping opposing defenses off balance with the second-highest scoring offense in the league.Nick Bosa on Jimmy Garoppolo: “it doesn’t seem like Jimmy gets the respect that he deserves.” #49ers pic.twitter.com/ydvfefhdAf
— OurSF49ers (@OurSf49ers_) January 13, 2020
For a sport and league where quarterback play so often drives results, it seems counterintuitive at first glance to think that Rodgers is a 7.5-point underdog against a quarterback in his first playoffs, but the 49ers are a superior team from top to bottom and Garoppolo is having a superior season than the future Hall of Famer. The 49ers may not replicate the 29-point victory from Week 12, but they're still the play.
NFL free pick: 49ers -7.5
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