Falcons face huge spread in Sunday skirmish with 49ers

The afternoon matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers has the largest spread of the Sunday NFL slate, but will feature two teams who combined to score 88 points last weekend. The Falcons are coming off of a 40-20 victory over the Carolina Panthers, while the 49ers pulled off an amazing comeback in the final minute to defeat the Saints 48-46 and hold onto first place in the NFC playoff standings.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX

Jimmy G was on fire against the Saints

Jimmy Garoppolo had one of his best NFL performances in last week’s win. He threw for 349 yards and four touchdowns, completed 26 of his 35 passes and had just one turnover. Most importantly he showed terrific poise on San Francisco's final possession to drive his team 63 yards on seven plays in less than a minute. It was a good bounce-back performance, after he threw for only 165 yards in a loss to the Ravens the week before.

The 49ers offense also hit some big plays in the run game, with four carries for 15 or more yards, and they rushed for 162 yards on 24 carries. Defensively, their 22nd-ranked run defense stepped up its game and held the Saints to just 4.3 yards per carry, but the secondary was shredded by Drew Brees. His 349 yards passing and five touchdowns were a bit of a surprise, given the 49ers rank No. 1 in the NFL in passing defense. It will be interesting to see how the defense deals with the loss of cornerback Richard Sherman, who was injured against the Saints.

Matt Ryan can't do it all alone

The Falcons will have to hope that secondary struggles again this week. The 49ers’ weakness on defense is not a strength of Atlanta’s. The Falcons have the third worst rushing-yards-per-game total, at just more than 80 yards per contest.

They rank third in the league in passing yardage, though, and Matt Ryan has thrown for at least 300 yards in three of his last four games. He will also have one less thing to worry about when he drops back, as 49ers defensive lineman Dee Ford was also injured against the Saints and will miss the rest of the regular season. Ryan will also have one less target to work with, as Calvin Ridley went on the injured-reserve this week with an abdominal injury.

Ryan will need pressure taken off him, and need a repeat of last week’s rushing performance by from teammates. The Falcons gained 159 yards on 32 carries against Carolina, which nearly doubled their season average. If the Falcons can keep their offense balanced, they should be able to hang around in the game.

San Francisco has performed well ATS as a home favorite

The 49ers have a 0-2-1 against-the-spread record when favored by double digits this season, but their struggles to cover have often been on the road, as they are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.

But the injuries for the 49ers are a concern. The losses of Sherman and Ford will make things easier for the Falcons, and the loss of starting center Weston Richburg is a massive blow for the offense.

The Falcons have won their last two road contests by a combined 43 points, despite being underdogs in both games. I don’t see them winning a third straight, but the Falcons should be able to do enough to keep the final score close, perhaps with a backdoor cover, as the 49ers look ahead to two big matchups on the horizon.

NFL free pick: Falcons +11.5

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