Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb neck-and-neck for most rushing yards

Heading into Week 15 of the NFL season, Cleveland running back Nick Chubb and Tennessee bruiser Derrick Henry are nearly tied atop the standings for most rushing yardage.

Henry is currently the frontrunner (+120) to outgain the rest of the league, even though he is 38 yards shy of Chubb’s 1,281-yard total.

Odds to gain the most rushing yards in the 2019 NFL season

The Titans running back is on a four-game streak of 100 rushing yards or more and amassed a season-high 188 against Kansas City in Week 10. Chubb has broken the 100-yard mark twice in his last four outings and put up just 58 yards against Pittsburgh in a Week 13 loss.

Henry’s recent production makes him a seemingly obvious choice to claim the rushing title, but the upcoming schedule may hint at a different outcome.

Let’s break down both the running backs' past performances and look ahead to their final three games to determine the best bet.

Chubb vs. Henry's last four games

In their past four contests, Chubb has averaged 4.7 yards per carry, compared to Henry’s 7.0 yards per attempt. Chubb struggled against Pittsburgh’s No. 9 rushing defense and mustered 3.4 YPC and 3.6 YPC in Week 11 and Week 13 matchups. Chubb's best showing came in a Week 4 win at Baltimore, where he carried the ball 20 times for 165 yards against the No. 6 rushing defense.

Since Week 7—the same week Ryan Tannehill assumed starting quarterback duties for Tennessee—Henry has averaged no fewer than 4.1 yards per carry and accomplished a season-high 8.4 YPC against the Jaguars’ 30th-ranked run defense in Week 12.

Henry has had the benefit of facing some rather porous rushing defenses, with the exception of Tampa Bay and Indianapolis, but even against the Colts’ eighth-ranked unit, the star back recorded 149 yards.

What’s even more impressive is Henry played through a hamstring injury against Oakland in Week 14 and still gathered 103 yards on the ground on 18 carries.

If Henry can keep the 100-yard rushing games coming, he should overtake Chubb, but a lot of that will depend on the schedule.

Upcoming opponents

Both Chubb and Henry have just three games left to rack up yardage. In Chubb’s case he’ll get the advantage of competing against some of the worst run defenses in the league. To his disadvantage he’s already met with two of those defenses and might find Baltimore and Cincinnati better prepared the second time around.

Chubb's greatest challenge lies in Baltimore, the team he ran all over for 165 yards in Week 4. With the Ravens hoping to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC, chances are Chubb will encounter a grittier battle in his second meeting.

The second-year back already pummeled the Bengals for a 7.1 yards-per-carry average in Week 14. He hasn't seen Arizona yet, but the Cardinals' ranking at 24th against the run indicates Chubb should put up impressive numbers.

As for Henry, who is still nursing a hamstring injury and did not practice Wednesday, his road to the rushing title is a bit trickier.

The Texans and Titans are both 8-5 and sit in first and second, respectively, in the AFC South. Both teams will grind it out in Week 15 and Week 17 for a chance to earn an automatic playoff bid, and the Texans' defense will pull out all the stops against Tennessee.

New Orleans' fifth-ranked run defense will also be eager to hamper Henry, as the Saints are in the hunt for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and can't afford a loss against Tennessee in the process.

Who will lead the league in rushing?

The Titans have been feeding Henry a substantial amount of carries each week, and it is paying off nicely. Still, the upcoming schedule doesn't bode well for the Titans back, and his hamstring injury could hinder him more than expected.

Chubb should enjoy two 100-yard performances against the Cardinals and Bengals, but expect the Ravens to redeem themselves and keep Chubb from repeating his earlier output against them.

It'll be a tight race decided by just a few yards, but the current leader, Chubb, should capitalize on the weak competition and edge past Henry for the 2019 rushing title.

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