Chiefs poised to pull off upset against vulnerable Patriots

This weekend’s late afternoon slate gives us a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game, and a matchup between the second and third favorites to win the AFC this season per BetAmerica’s futures. New England (+160 to win the conference) will host Kansas City (+550) on Sunday afternoon in a game that will see one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history face off against one of one of the league’s future faces. The Patriots are favored by three points in a game that, if it comes anywhere close to their last meeting, could be one of the best games of the season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots odds

Mahomes was rusty against the Raiders, but the Chiefs still survived

The Chiefs survived a stretch of two and a half games without their dynamic leader, and now lead Oakland by two games in the AFC West standings after defeating the Raiders 40-9 last weekend. Mahomes looked a bit rusty at times coming off of the Chiefs’ bye week, but he rushed for a touchdown and threw for another in the victory. Most importantly, the Chiefs did not turn the ball over a single time in the win, an issue that has plagued them at times over the past month. Surprisingly, it was the defense that shone the brightest in the game, as Kansas City did not allow the Raiders to put points on the board until the start of the fourth quarter, by which time the game was already decided, and forced three turnovers on the day.

The Patriots' defense was exposed against the Texans

They now face off against a Patriots team that, for the first eight weeks, looked to have the best secondary in the NFL as they posted numbers never before seen in the first half of the season. Baltimore changed all of that when Lamar Jackson and company picked them apart, utilizing tight end play and the option run game to keep the Patriots offense off the field and move the ball seemingly at will. Those issues were exposed even more last weekend when Deshaun Watson threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns—and caught a fourth—in a 28-22 victory that was not nearly as close as the score indicated. DeAndre Hopkins was limited to just five catches and failed to find the endzone, but three of his teammates picked up the slack as the Patriots were unable to stop the passing game as the Texans led 28-9 in the fourth quarter.

Looking deeper, it appears that the defensive play the first half of the season papered over the cracks of an offense that is surprisingly struggling to find points. For as long as anybody can remember, Tom Brady was able to take budget ingredients and whip up a gourmet feast, as he turned no-names into stars, and has-beens into resurgent players. Now, it appears the lack of talent around him is finally at the point where even Brady and Bill Belichick are unable to whip up their usual magic tricks. Brady had just 82 yards on 7 of 19 passing at the half last weekend, and the Patriots have topped 20 points against a team with a winning record just twice this season. Those two games were opening week against the Steelers, and last week against Houston, when they needed two garbage-time touchdowns to reach that mark.

Brady is showing signs of age

The fact is, the Patriots are showing their age, and Brady is no longer able to carry average players to greatness anymore. Losing Gronkowski exposed weaknesses in the passing game, and without a dominant offensive line, the defense has had to pick up the slack. They have done so against inferior opposition, but the Patriots have been exposed when they have faced good teams. The Cowboys game was a win, but the weather that game was played in—and the fact that the Cowboys simply refused to take any chances late—make that result an outlier. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have gotten fully healthy, and the defense gets better every week as the new starters get familiar with the defensive schemes.

Expect Kelce to have a big day

For me, this game comes down to talent, and turnovers. Kansas City has more talent at more positions, especially at tight end, where Travis Kelce will get plenty of looks from Mahomes. If the defense focuses too much on him, they risk letting Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins getting open downfield.

For the Patriots, they rank 21st in the run, which is the area of defense that hurts Kansas City the most. If they are unable to gain big chunks in the ground game, the Chiefs defense should be able to limit the damage through the air. Furthermore, the Chiefs lead the NFL in turnover margin at +8, and the last two games have shown they are taking better care of the football. If the Patriots are unable to force turnovers and give Brady a short field, it could be a long day for the home team.

The Patriots have won 21 straight games at home, and are rightly favored to win this one. The Chiefs have covered in nine of their last 12 games as an underdog, and pushed in another. The safe play here is to take Kansas City and the points, but I believe that the Chiefs will not only cover, they will end the Patriots’ winning streak and get revenge for last year’s AFC Championship and get the win.

NFL free pick: Chiefs moneyline and spread

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