Browns and Jets look for redemption in Monday Night Football

The long-suffering fan bases of the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets entered 2019 with hopeful fantasies of a breakthrough season producing a playoff appearance. Led by exciting first-year head coaches (Freddie Kitchens and Adam Gase) and piloted by second year quarterbacks (Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold), many speculated that one or both teams would emerge as contenders in the AFC. Then Week 1 happened.

Browns and Jets are reeling after Week 1 defeats

The Browns were smacked at home by the Titans 43-13 getting outscored in the fourth quarter 21-0. For its part Cleveland committed three turnovers and 18 penalties for an absurd 182 yards. The Jets also lost at home, but in vastly different fashion. New York blew a 16-0 lead against the Bills, lost 17-16 and got outgained by 147 yards. So who has the edge Monday night?

Mayfield has big edge over Siemian

At quarterback the obvious edge goes to Cleveland. Mayfield got banged up in Week 1, but he is way out of Trevor Siemian’s league. Darnold is out indefinitely with mononucleosis.

At the other skill positions, it’s closer than you might think—probably because of Cleveland’s dearth of depth behind Nick Chubb at running back. Dontrell Hilliard is questionable with a concussion and has yet to practice. With Kareem Hunt still serving seven more games of a suspension and Duke Johnson traded away to the Texans, that leaves just D’Ernest Johnson behind Chubb. Unfortunately the Jets lost wide receiver Quincy Enunwa for the season, but they did acquire Demaryius Thomas to bolster their corps.

Defense looms large

Neither of these offensive lines is very inspiring. Kendall Lamm is out for the Browns and Kelvin Beachum is questionable for the Jets. The defensive front sevens are where most of the questions around this game center and where I expect the outcome to be determined. The Browns have an edge, though Olivier Vernon must play much better than he did in Week 1. Adarius Taylor is out and Chris Smith will play with a heavy heart (if he plays at all) after the tragic death of his girlfriend. On the Jets’ side Nathan Shepherd has been suspended six games for PEDs and both C.J. Mosley and Quinnen Williams are questionable. If either can’t go, it may tip the game’s scales in favor of the visitors.

The secondaries are evenly matched. Most casual fans are swayed by the big names of Cleveland’s youthful corners, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, but the Browns will have to prove they are substantially better than the Jets’ more elder statesmen Trumaine Johnson and Darryl Roberts. The best player in either back end is New York safety Jamal Adams, which gives the Jets a slight edge.

Special teams should play a big role

I expect special teams to play a role in keeping this game close. I trust Austin Seibert’s placekicking and Jamie Gillan’s punting much more than I do Kaare Vedvik’s erratic right leg. However, the Jets have a huge edge in the returns department, with Trenton Cannon and Braxton Berrios being more polished return men. The Browns may have D’Ernest Johnson serving double time (in addition to his aforementioned backup running back duties). Even if Hilliard is a go, the Jets will likely win the “third phase” of the game.

What’s it all add up to? Going into this preview, I expected to pick the Browns in a blowout. But after factoring in for home-field advantage, my numbers call for almost a dead heat. This line opened at Cleveland -2.5 and has quickly ballooned to -6.5 (mostly because of Darnold's illness). I do not feel comfortable laying the points on the road against a salty opponent.

Score prediction: Browns 24-22

MNF free pick: Jets +6.5

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