Premier League: Why Brentford are favored to be the best promoted team this season

Brentford got off to the perfect start in the Premier League, as they welcomed Arsenal to the Community Stadium in the season’s opening game. The Championship play-off winners, spurred on by a fired-up home crowd, upset the odds to beat Mikel Arteta’s men 2-0 and send the first shockwaves through the season despite it only being 90 minutes in.

The media ran with the narrative of Arsenal’s failings, but more should be made of a solid Brentford side who are favored to finish as the best promoted side this season. Norwich and Watford finished above The Bees last year in the Championship, yet it’s Brentford who are fancied to fare better in the top flight and for good reason.

The Bees are buzzing at home

Last season was a fresh start for Brentford, who left Griffin Park and moved into the new Community Stadium. It was a move that helped guarantee their return to the Premier League – their first appearance in England’s top division in 74 years – because they lost just two games at home all last season. That red-hot form at home is going to be key to their season in the Premier League – and it’s started well already with the 2-0 win over the Gunners.

Two years ago, Brentford lost the play-off final for a seventh time, and it took them a little while to get going last season, but they went on a 21-game unbeaten run from the end of October and saw off Bournemouth and Swansea to secure their promotion.

A large part of that success was their ability in front of goal, as they netted 79 times last year – comfortably the highest scorers in the Championship. Ivan Toney scored a record-breaking 33 of those goals and Brentford have plenty of attacking threat elsewhere with Sergi Canos and Bryan Mbeumo in the mix.

They also won 23 points from losing positions last year – more than any other Championship side – which shows the strength and belief that Danish manager Thomas Frank has brought to the club.

Defensively, they smashed the club-record fee for Celtic centre-back Kristoffer Ajer and that gives the Bees a solid, balanced side.

Norwich will continue to bounce

Norwich come into this season as championship winners, but this is a club that is more up and down than a kangaroo on PEDs. The Canaries have been promoted three times and relegated three times in the last eight years, so it’s never been boring.

The last time they were in the Premier League they finished rock-bottom, conceding a disastrous 75 goals – averaging almost two a game – and won just five times. In their final nine top flight matches they scored just once as they left the league with their tail between their legs and manager Daniel Farke conceded they were boys playing against men.

Norwich have top flight experience, which is a plus, but this is a squad that lacks much depth. Emi Buendia scored 15 times last year and created more chances than anyone else in the Championship, but has left for Aston Villa in a £33 million move.

Striker Teemu Pukki scored 26 times last year and found the net 11 times in the Premier League the year before, so he’s Norwich’s clear attacking threat, but beyond him it’s tough to see who in the side has the quality to help Norwich avoid relegation.

Watford’s unpredictable nature signals a worrying season

Incredibly, Watford are now on their 15th manager in the last 10 years. It defies logic, but that is the way of the Pozzo family, who took over ownership in 2012. The new guy in charge is Xisco Munoz, who took over last Christmas with the Hornets in fifth place. He had previously managed just 11 games for Dinamo Tbilisi in Georgia, and despite winning eight of those games he doesn't exactly have a high-profile resume.

The good news is that no team in the Championship kept as many clan sheets as Watford (23) and strikers Ismaila Sarr and Joao Pedro bagged a combined 21 goals. Their attacking threat was on show when they beat Aston Villa 3-2 in the opening weekend of the season, but defensively they didn’t look anywhere near as solid as last year.

There are plenty of question marks with Xisco in charge, while Watford are relying on a lot of players who were previously relegated a couple of years ago and a lack of youth in the squad. It would be no surprise to see Xisco packing his bags before the season is over, as Watford’s struggles are clear to see.