Manchester United vs. Southampton: Premier League betting odds, preview, and pick

Manchester United are in "Save Our Season" mode after a shocking exit from the FA Cup was followed by the club dropping out of the top four. Ralf Rangnick’s side are on the back foot, and now host a Southampton squad riding a huge wave of momentum after coming from behind twice to beat Tottenham 3-2 in midweek.

The odds suggest Manchester United can get their top four challenge back on track, but the stats are less convincing…

Ralf Breaks the Internet

Social media went into meltdown in the last seven days as Manchester United’s season continues to spiral out of control. Rival fans have been revelling in it, while the loyal United supporters had to suffer yet more humiliation.

Fresh off the winter break, United were knocked out of the FA Cup at home by Championship side Middlesbrough, and followed it up five days later by drawing with bottom of the table Burnley at Turf Moore.

Paul Pogba returned and found the net against the Clarets, but that’s the only silver lining in what has been a rotten few months under temporary coach Ralph Rangnick. Since the turn of the year, the Red Devils have lost to Wolves, drawn to Aston Villa, and drawn with Burnley in the league – finding themselves a point outside the top four, with Tottenham and Arsenal just three points behind them and with two games in hand.

United are averaging just 1.73 points per game at home and Wolves, Aston Villa, and Everton are among the teams to have come away from Old Trafford with points this season. The Theatre of Dreams no longer frightens opponents.

The good news is they’re unbeaten in the last 12 against Southampton (6-0-6), and the last time the Saints visited Old Trafford they had two men sent off and were hammered 9-0 in record-breaking fashion.

What Ralf would give for another result like that... 

Saints or Sinners?

Southampton are an enigma of a team this season. On the positive side, they’ve held league leaders Manchester City to a 0-0 draw, beaten high-flying West Ham 3-2, and in mid-week they showed plenty of bottle to come from behind twice to beat Antonio Conte’s Tottenham 3-2.

But this same Southampton side has also lost on the road to Norwich and Everton and drawn with Crystal Palace and Newcastle. It’s hard to know quite which Southampton side will show up.

Recent form has been good for the Saints in the league, however. They’ve picked up 11 points from their last six games and although that isn’t remarkably high, it’s very impressive considering five of those six games were against teams in the top eight of the table.

Plenty of this team will still have scar tissue from last year’s 9-0 embarrassment at Old Trafford, but this is a very different set of circumstances. In that game Southampton were in the middle of a dire run of form in the league (0-8-1) and had a man sent off within two minutes. They had another man sent off late in the game, and United scored three goals in the final four minutes with Southampton down to nine men to really rub salt into the wound.

That game also came in the middle of a really good unbeaten run for United where their league record under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer coming into the game was 10-1-4.      

Manchester United vs. Southampton Betting Trends

• 55% of Manchester United’s home league games this season have had Under 2.5 goals
• 83% of Southampton’s away league games this season have had Over 2.5 goals
• Manchester United have conceded a goal in nine of their 11 home league games this year
• Both teams have scored in six of the last seven meetings between these two teams
• There have been Over 2.5 goals in five of the last seven matches between the two teams

The Saints can stun the Red Devils

The narrative going into this fixture may lean towards last year’s 9-0 match, but that was an anomaly and should be treated as such. United are in all sorts of trouble on and off the pitch, with a fractured dressing room and a team low on confidence. Southampton, on the other hand, come into this game having drawn with league leaders Manchester City, and produced a thrilling comeback against Tottenham, either side of safe progression into the FA Cup Fifth Round. The mood around both clubs is at polar opposites. The safe play looks to be on Saints with the Asian Handicap (+1), but fortune favors the brave, and Southampton can add more misery to United’s season on Saturday.

Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Southampton (+1400)

Manchester United vs. Southampton: Southampton +1 Asian Handicap (-114)

Same Game Combo: Southampton to win, Over 2.5 goals, and James Ward-Prowse to score a goal (+1900)