Leicester City vs. Man City: Community Shield odds, preview, and pick

The reigning Premier League and FA Cup champions will face off Saturday in the Community Shield at Wembley Stadium.

The annual “unofficial” primer for the Premier League season will feature Manchester City as a significant favorite over Leicester City.

Leicester City trying to get healthy

Last year’s FA Cup winner was already facing some injury issues, but Leicester City was dealt a potential season-long blow Wednesday. During it friendly with Villarreal, promising center back Wesley Fofana had his leg broken on a terrible challenge, one you rarely see in a non-competitive match.

The Foxes are also without defenders James Justin and Jonny Evans, and fullback Timothy Castagne just returned to training, after he fractured an orbital bone in the Euros. Ryan Bertrand will likely debut at fullback for his new side, along with Ricardo Pereira, while holding midfielder Wilfred Ndidi will drop back to partner with Caglar Soyuncu. FA Cup hero Kasper Schmeichel returned to play against Villarreal, following his long stint in the Euros, and is expected to start in goal.

Leicester City’s back line is going to be a huge concern for a side that failed to win any of its four preseason friendlies prior to a 3-2 victory over Villarreal.

Struggles against teams like Burton Albion and Wycombe do not signal likely success against a side like Manchester City, but Leicester City will have quality on the pitch, with Youri Tielemans and Jamie Vardy. We will also likely see the debut of forward Patson Daka in attack, which gives Leicester City another pacey outlet on the break — its most likely path to a goal.

Midfielder James Maddison is also expected to miss the match, as his girlfriend just had a baby, and he has been linked with a move to Arsenal.

Manchester City is ready to get the season started

Last year’s runaway Premier League champions will be without a host of stars. While many sides would struggle to replace the likes of Ederson, Kyle Walker, Raheem Sterling, or John Stones, few teams have the depth of the Citizens.

Pep Guardiola will likely rest Kevin De Bruyne, Rodri, and Gabriel Jesus\, as well, so expect the attack to be led by former Leicester City winger Riyad Mahrez, with Ilkay Gundogan in control in the midfield. American keeper Zack Steffen is expected to deputize in goal, with Joao Cancelo and Ruben Dias on the back line.

Man City’s “backup” squad could likely finish in the top half of the Premier League table, so there will be plenty of quality to test its opponents.

Youth talent Samuel Edozie is expected to operate in a forward role for Manchester City, and the teenager is likely keen to make an impact. He found the back of the net three times in City’s three preseason affairs, tied with Mahrez for the team lead, and features dangerous pace that will ask questions of Leicester’s shaky back line.

Trends

Leicester City has defeated Manchester City just four times in 19 matches. One of those was a stunning, 5-2 victory in September, during Man City’s rocky start to the season. It is Leicester’s only victory in its last five matches.

Man City has kept a clean sheet in three of its last five meetings with Leicester, with two or fewer goals scored in each of those wins.

In their three preseason matches, the Citizens conceded just once and scored 10 goals. Leicester has scored just six goals in its four preseason efforts, kept a clean sheet in two games, and conceding six goals.

Manchester City has won its last two appearances in the Community Shield, with two goals scored in each.

Picks

Mahrez will be the main man for Man City, both on set pieces and in the final third. Mahrez also has two goals and two assists in his last four matches against Leicester, and he has scored in each of his last five matches for club and country this summer. Given his outstanding form, I like him to score at some point in this match.

Leicester City will be mostly focused on getting through the contest without any more injuries. The Foxes will look to sit back and hit on the break, but City’s back line is more than capable.

Manchester City should win this match in regulation, and while its attack is going to be stunted, the Citizens will find a goal or two.

Free picks: Manchester City ML -106, Man City win/under 2.5 +400, Riyad Mahrez to score anytime +175