Kevin De Bruyne favored to lead Premier League in assists in 2021-22

Given his place as arguably the best midfielder in the world, it's no surprise Kevin De Bruyne is favored to lead the English Premier League in assists in 2021-2022.

The linchpin to Manchester City’s ruthless attack moved into the top 10 all-time in Premier League assists in February and has led the league in three of the past five seasons.

However, his +200 price may have bettors wondering if there is better value out there.

Let’s break down his chances to win the future, and see if you should wager on him or one of his competitors this campaign.

De Bruyne is favored for a reason

Last season was the first time since 2016-2017 that De Bruyne played at least 25 matches and did not lead the league in assists. He registered 18 helpers in 2016-2017 and followed up with another 16 assists the next season. After he played just 19 matches because of injury in 2018-2019, he once again won the Premier League Playmaker Award with a record 20-assist haul in the 2019-2020 season.

De Bruyne dealt with numerous injuries last season, which limited him to just 25 of City’s 38 league matches. However, he still tallied 12 assists to finish tied with Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United and two behind league leader Harry Kane, even though he played about 1,000 fewer minutes than either. He also had the fourth-most chances created (80), just 15 fewer than Fernandes.

De Bruyne has had time to rest, after he returned during Euro 2020, and has another weapon to play alongside, Jack Grealish. His locked-in role as free kick taker helps his chances, and nearly everything City does in attack runs through him.

He could be held back if he plays in a false-nine role again this season. His back to goal limits his ability see the entire pitch and pick apart compact defenses.

Is Kane’s price warranted?

Given his place atop the leaderboard last season, some may be surprised to see the Tottenham striker at 14-1.

However, last season was an anomaly for Kane. In 245 Premier League matches, he has registered just 34 assists, and 14 came last year.

Last season, Kane had an expected assist total of 3.63, by far the largest gap of xA-to-actual assists of any player in the league. His ratio of 3.86 actual assists per expected assist was also the biggest in the league of any player in the top 10.

I would stay far away from Kane’s line this season.

Who has the best chance to dethrone him?

Fernandes might have had more assists last season, if not for poor finishing from players like Anthony Martial and his penchant for putting free kicks on target. Fernandes' 95 chances led the Premier League, with just 18 from set pieces, as he dominated in open play.

However, Fernandes may see a lower assist total this season, as Jadon Sancho’s arrival at Manchester United could poach opportunities. Sancho has recorded double-digit assists for Borussia Dortmund in each of his last three seasons, but at +700, I would be hesitant to lay money on him.

The two other best options are Grealish and Aston Villa midfielder Emiliano Buendia.

Grealish is expected to play on the wing with City and could nip some of De Bruyne’s chances. His 10 assists last season for Aston Villa, in just 183 more minutes than De Bruyne, were the fourth-best in the league. However, I would expect Grealish to see an uptick in goals this season, rather than assists. His 81 chances created were third-most in the league, with just 11 from set pieces.

At 25-1, Buendia is worth a serious look. He had 16 assists last year for Norwich City in the Championship. If he can stay healthy and slide right into Grealish’s role in Villa’s system, Buendia is a good bet to notch 15 assists or more.

Is De Bruyne worth betting?

When healthy, there is no player more impactful from a playmaking perspective than City’s Belgian midfield maestro. Even with the addition of Grealish, the only thing that can stop De Bruyne is injury.

However, if Grealish steals a few, or if De Bruyne is injured, I love the price for Buendia. He has Premier League experience, he has outstanding vision, and Villa’s attack will revolve around him.

Premier League picks: Kevin De Bruyne (+200), Emiliano Buendia (+2500)