Italy vs. England: Euro 2020 Final betting odds, preview, and pick

The European Championships will come to a conclusion on Sunday, as England host Italy at Wembley Stadium in the Euro 2020 Final.

England are slight favorites in a match that many expect to be low-scoring and head to extra time.         

Can Italy make it 34 straight unbeaten?

The Italians missed the 2018 World Cup, and Roberto Mancini was hired to revitalize the national football program. He responded by shifting the mentality from defensive to attacking, and the Azzurri head into the final on a 33-match unbeaten run stretching back nearly three years—the last 14 of those matches resulting in an Italian victory.

That streak was thoroughly tested in the semi-final against Spain, with a penalty shootout required for Italy to claim victory after playing 120 minutes to a 1-1 draw. Keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma lived up to his namesake, making a massive save in the penalty shootout and denying Spain multiple times in regulation. While his national record clean sheet stretch came to an end against Austria, he has never conceded more than one goal in his five years with the Italian national team, and has come up big against two sides ranked in the top six in the FIFA world rankings.

Jorginho is getting discussion for player of the tournament with his stellar passing metrics, and he will be the key to the match for the Italians. Federico Chiesa and Lorenzo Insigne will be called upon to get in behind England’s high press and put pressure on Jordan Pickford, who looked very shaky at times against the Danish pressure. However, Italy must also be wary of Raheem Sterling’s runs behind their line, meaning they might be a bit more methodical than they have in previous matches.

All the pressure on England to "bring it home"

England have had every break imaginable in their run to the Euro 2020 final. They have played five of their six matches at home, with just their quarterfinal taking place away from Wembley. They avoided the much-tougher half of the bracket, avoiding every top 10 FIFA ranked team in the tournament. While they faced three teams ranked between 11th and 20th, only their win against an overmatched Ukraine was convincing.

Now England will play in the final in front of their fans, with 55 years of frustration and heartache weighing on their young shoulders. Gareth Southgate has gotten his tactics right at the end of the day, but aside from Germany they have yet to face a team with both a dominant midfield and a fast-paced attack like they will see from the Italians. If he resorts back to a three-man back line to try to pressure the Italian midfield, it could see their own offensive prowess stifled.

If England stays with the 4-2-3-1 formation, look for Harry Kane to drop into the midfield at times and force Italy’s slower center backs to try to slow down Sterling darting through the center. England will also need to find a way to establish a foothold in the midfield, as Kalvin Phillips might find himself a bit isolated against the Italian triumvirate.

Italy vs. England Trends

Italy and England have faced each other 27 times previously, with Italy claiming 11 victories versus eight for England. England have never defeated Italy in a major tournament. Italy have won their only two previous meetings in the European Championships, with a 1-0 win in 1980 and a penalty shootout victory in Euro 2012. Their last two meetings in friendlies both resulted in 1-1 stalemates.

While England’s first four matches have seen two or fewer goals, their last two have each seen at least three goals scored—albeit their match with Denmark was 1-1 after regulation. Meanwhile, Italy have seen three or more goals scored in four of their six matches, but three of their last four saw two or fewer scored in regulation.

Italy has won all six of their matches in the tournament, and have won their last 14 contests. Italy have been held scoreless in regulation just once in this tournament, as have England.

Sterling will need help in the final

England have played at home nearly the entire tournament, in front of their own fans, and have enjoyed that support as they marched to the finals. However, only against Ukraine did they truly look dominant, and even Denmark made them look uncomfortable until their legs gave out.

Meanwhile, Italy has been heavily tested, dealing with the top-ranked team in the world in Belgium before outlasting a Spain side that dominated possession and forced them to chase the ball for two hours. The Italians have shown a penchant for adapting their play style during the entire tournament, figuring out ways to pick apart bunkered defenses one match, while showing their counter-attacking prowess the next.

Much of the success England has enjoyed in this tournament has been the product of Raheem Sterling, but he is going to need help in this match. Italy’s defense and midfield are exceptional, and have plenty of experience and expertise in denying teams their primary means of attack. However, if England are going to find a goal, it will likely come from the boot of either Sterling or Kane, so taking one of them to score is your best pathway to cash from a player prop.

Betting on streaks to end is always a risky play, and it’s one that I would not recommend here. England will put up a fight, but Italy has the better midfield and the better keeper, and while England’s defense has been solid thus far in the tournament, Italy’s individual players are arguably better as well.

I see this match playing out to a 1-1 draw in regulation, with the Azzurri taking it home either in extra time or in a penalty shootout, where Donnarumma will give the Italians a clear advantage over Pickford. Take Italy to lift the trophy, and use the TwinSpires Sports Bet Builder to pair a full-time draw with both teams to score for a solid payout. 

Euro 2020 picks: Italy to win; Draw and BTTS (+360); Kane or Sterling to score (+105)

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