Euro 2020: Spain vs. Poland betting odds, preview, and pick

Spain and Poland face off in a key matchup in Group E of the 2020 European Championships when the two teams take the pitch in Seville, Spain on Saturday, June 19.

Spain are overwhelming favorites, with a low-scoring match expected by many.

Can Spain solve their finishing woes?

No team has missed more big chances in a single match than Spain did against Sweden, as they saw four such opportunities go begging. Striker Alvaro Morata was the main culprit, as he has scored once for his country in more than 380 minutes this season. Many are calling for him to be benched, and he could see his spot taken by Gerard Moreno on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Sergio Busquets is expected to return to the lineup, as the Spanish captain has been out with a positive COVID-19 test. His return would make Spain’s defense and midfield even more solid, and lend more possession-based play to a side that held the ball for a staggering 85.1% of the match. Six Spanish players completed more passes than the entire Sweden team, and Poland might be in for the same treatment.

Poland must do better job providing for Lewandowski

Poland had a rough first match, falling to Slovakia 2-1 in a match where they scored an own goal and had a player sent off. They struggled to create chances, completing just nine key passes, attempting only eleven shots, and enjoying just one big chance. Star forward Robert Lewandowski cut a lone figure up top, registering just 39 touches.

With midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak suspended due to his red card, the Polish midfield will rely even more on the creativity of Piotr Zielinski to help generate a few chances. However, Poland are likely going to spend the majority of the match defending, meaning the few opportunities they have to go forward must result in solid service to Lewandowski.

Spain vs. Poland Trends

Spain have not lost in their last 11 matches for Euro, between qualification and the tournament. They have also not conceded a goal in three straight matches. In their previous two meetings this century on Spanish soil, Spain have beaten Poland twice and outscored them 9-0.

Poland are winless in their last four matches, and have tasted victory just once in their last eight. Each of Poland’s last three matches have seen three or more goals scored. The Poles have scored in each of their last four matches.

Possession percentage will be key

Spain are expected to win not only this match, but the group, and pressure is building on them. With Busquets returning, they will be even more equipped to control possession and create chances. It becomes a matter of finishing them off, which they should be able to do against a Poland defense that is not as good as the one Sweden put in front of them. Given their high possession numbers against Sweden, it is a solid bet to take their possession percentage to be higher than 70.5% on the day.

As for Poland, they will be hoping to find a way to get service to Lewandowski, but Pau Torres and Aymeric Laporte should be able to help control him enough to limit his chances. With how Spain are missing chances and Poland are struggling to create them, use the TwinSpires Sports Bet Builder to combine the Spain moneyline with a total of Under 3.5 goals to make the most of a Spanish victory.

Euro 2020 picks: Spain ML with Under 3.5 goals (-110), and Spain possession over 70.5 (+100)

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