Euro 2020: Netherlands vs. Ukraine betting odds, preview, and pick

The Netherlands will kick off their Euro 2020 campaign on Sunday, June 13 as they host Ukraine in a pivotal match to determine the winner of Group C.

The Oranje are heavily favored to win, with a low-scoring matchup expected.

Netherlands looking to find some consistency

With captain Virgil Van Dijk still rehabbing a knee injury, the Dutch will be looking for a leader on the pitch to help steer them to glory as they return to the Euros after missing the 2016 tournament. The nation saw lots of success in the 1990s and 2000s, after winning the 1988 Championships, but those glory days have faded into the past.

Now, Frank de Boer faces questions from all sides as he leads the side into this year’s competition, with many unsure about his formation, his tactics, and his lineup decisions. After Ronald Koeman led the Dutch to qualification, his departure to manage Barcelona opened the position for de Boer, who became the first manager to fail to win any of his first four matches in charge of the Dutch.

As for his squad, one player nobody questions is forward Memphis Depay, who may soon join Koeman in Spain and is in outstanding form. He scored six times in their 10 qualifying matches, scored 20 goals and assisted 12 others in Ligue 1 this season, and has five goals in his last three matches for the Oranje.

The midfield will be without Donny van de Beek, who went home this week with a groin injury, but Georginio Wijnaldum and Frenkie de Jong will provide plenty of quality in the middle of the 5-3-2 formation.

Defensively, they will need someone to step up for a unit that, in their last five matches against teams in this year’s tournament, has conceded nine goals and kept zero clean sheets.

Ukraine rode luck to win their qualifying group

Andriy Shevchenko’s men won their group ahead of Portugal and Serbia, but analytics show just how fortunate they were in doing so. In their eight matches, they scored 17 goals and conceded just four times. However, per xG numbers, they should have conceded at least 10 while scoring just 11.

Their form since qualifying has also not been the most impressive. While they defeated Northern Ireland and Cyprus in warm-ups this past week, they have just one win and four draws in their previous 11 matches going back to last September. That includes a 4-0 defeat to Spain, a 7-1 loss to France, and a trio of defeats to Poland, Germany, and Switzerland in November where they were outscored 8-1.

Their attack will be led by Ruslan Malinovskyi, an attacking midfielder for Atalanta in Serie A who led the league in assists with 12 this season. He scored three goals in qualification and also found the back of the net against Germany last year. They will look to sit back and absorb pressure and hit on the break, and he will be the key to transitioning up the pitch.

Netherlands vs. Ukraine Trends

In the Netherlands’ last 11 matches in the European Championships, there have been three or more goals scored in 10 of them. The Netherlands have scored two or more goals in nine of their last 10 matches in the competition, and have won five of their last six.

The Ukraine have not been defeated in regulation in their last eight matches in the European Championships, and have scored two or more goals in six of their last seven matches in the competition.

The Netherlands have kept clean sheets in three of their last four outings, albeit against lower-level European competition.

Expect the Netherlands to keep a clean sheet

The Dutch did not qualify for Euro 2016, and the Ukraine did not score a single goal in the tournament. While the Ukraine has enough talent to advance to the knockout stage, overcoming a superior Dutch side playing on home soil is likely too much to ask.

Look for the Netherlands to win this match with a clean sheet, and for Depay to continue his purple patch with another goal.

Euro 2020 picks: Netherlands win to nil (+150), Memphis Depay to score (+160)