Euro 2020: Italy vs Spain betting odds, preview, and pick

We have reached the semi-final stage of Euro 2020 and Italy vs Spain is the heavyweight match we’ve all been waiting for. Three-time Euro champions Spain came out on top when these two sides met in the 2012 final, and now the Italians are out for revenge.

Italy have looked the more impressive of the two sides so far over the last three weeks and are +145 to win in 90 minutes, with Spain at +210, and the draw at +220. Spain haven’t won either of their knockout games in regulation time this tournament and its +110 for them to qualify for the final, while Italy needed extra-time to see off Austria and are -134 to go through.

Spain’s Stuttering Strikers

It’s strange to say Spain are stuttering when they have scored 12 goals in this tournament, more than any other side, but dig a little deeper and you’ll see their leading tournament scorer is "own goal." Three times the opposition have put the ball into their own net against Spain, making up for some wasteful finishing from Alvaro Morata and Gerard Moreno.

Yet Spain are creating plenty of chances. They have averaged 7.8 shots on target per game in Euro 2020, which is the highest average of any team. Italy have only given up 7.6 shots per game to the opposition in total, so expect Spain’s average to come down, but even so the line looks beatable. Meanwhile, the Italians have only conceded once in regulation time this tournament. Given how the competition has gone, backing Spain to have Over 3.5 shots on target at -167 looks solid, as does backing Spain Under 1.5 goals at -295.

The Immovable Italians

Roberto Mancini’s Italy have been simply sensational. Their quarter-final win over Belgium was their toughest test to date, but they passed it with flying colors to add to their three wins and three clean sheets in Group A and their defeat of surprise dark horses Austria.

The Italians are now on a 32-game unbeaten run which is a national record and come into this clash brimming with confidence. The Azzurri are -265 to win or draw inside 90 minutes.

Backing Italy to have Over 12.5 shots in the game also looks a shrewd bet at -112. The Italians have averaged 18.4 shots per game in this tournament, and despite not having a shot in the last 20 minutes against Belgium, they’d already racked up 14. Spain have dominated the ball and shots in all their games so far, but haven’t come up against an opposition with the quality of Italy.

Immobile or Insigne – That is the question

Italy’s two star attackers this tournament have been Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne. Both have two goals each at Euro 2020, and it’s hard to pick one over the other to find the net as they both have fantastic chances against a Spain side that has a habit of coughing up opportunities.

19% of Immobile’s 16 efforts have been on target, and he has a conversion rate of 13%. Insigne has had fewer shots with 13, but he’s more accurate with 38% on target and more clinical with a 15% conversion rate. I’d rather take the +325 on Insigne to score any time rather than the +230 on Immobile.

Italy vs. Spain Prediction

Spain have only won one of their five games in 90 minutes in this tournament, while Italy look like the real deal. I’m backing the Italians to avenge that 2012 final loss, and although 2-1 caught my eye at +850, the more I consider the Italian’s defense and Spain’s wastefulness in front of goal, the more I lean towards Italy 2-0 at +950.

Euro 2020 pick: Italy 2-0 Spain (+950)

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