Euro 2020: England vs. Germany betting odds, preview, and pick

Two of the world’s soccer superpowers will square off Tuesday for a spot in the Euro 2020 quarterfinals, as England will take on bitter rival Germany at Wembley Stadium in London.

The Three Lions are slight favorites in the matchup, which is expected to be a low-scoring affair.

England still has much to prove

England will play at Wembley for the fourth time in four matches at Euro 2020. However, its fans have been quite unimpressed with the offensive output, as manager Gareth Southgate has been taken to task for his squad selection and tactics.

There are reports he is considering a switch from a four-man back line to a back three with two wingbacks, a formation England has not employed all year. The Three Lions have yet to concede a goal in the tournament, and a change in formation could mean confusion in the back. However, it would allow England to counter the 3-4-2-1 formation the Germans have used to advance from the group stage.

England’s final match was against a Czech Republic team that knocked out the Netherlands on Sunday, so while its group wasn’t as difficult as Germany’s, it definitely tested the English. They should cause the Germans problems with their defense, but they will need to figure out a way to score, as Raheem Sterling’s two goals are all they have achieved in the tournament.

Germany hopes to capitalize on clear path to final

After they navigated Group F, the Germans have a much easier path to the final than could have ever been expected. With the winner of Sweden and Ukraine awaiting the winner of this matchup, and Denmark and the Czechs awaiting that winner in the semifinals, Die Mannschaft suddenly has an opportunity to go from nearly being knocked out in the group stage, to reaching the last match of the tournament.

First, the Germans must crack an English defense that has yet to buckle in the tournament. They seemed to have figured out their offensive struggles, as they put four on the board against Portugal, but then they needed a late goal from Leon Goretzka to get a draw with Hungary and advance to the knockout stage.

Kai Havertz has scored in each of Germany’s last two matches, and seems to be the man in form. However, he is going to need help from the rest of Germany’s attacking group, which has been absent. With zero goals between Timo Werner, Serge Gnabry, Thomas Muller, and Leroy Sane, it might come down to Goretzka's magic from the midfield for the Germans to have a chance.

England vs. Germany trends

England has yet to concede a goal in its last six matches in the European Championship, including qualifying. The English have also won five of those matches, with one draw. The total has gone under three in all of England’s matches in the tournament.

Germany has scored multiple goals in 10 of its last 11 outings in the European Championship, including qualifying. In five of Germany's last six matches, at least three goals were scored.

In their last six home matches against Germany, the English have seen three or more goals scored just once. However, Germany has taken at least a draw in each of their last five matches against England away from home soil.

Will England crack under pressure?

All the pressure is on England. At home, with a clear road through for the winner, the English fans expect nothing less than an appearance in the final. With Southgate potentially changing the formation, it will likely see Jack Grealish dropped to the bench, which hurts England’s chances.

However, while three at the back would help nullify Havertz, it gives Goretzka more room to operate in the midfield. His absence has hurt Germany in the tournament, and I believe he will make the Germans a more dangerous unit. The longer it takes England to score, the more pressure it will feel, and in the end, I believe that will be the English downfall, as the youngest team in the tournament.

It might take extra time, but I believe it will be the Germans who move on. Given the propensity of teams to keep things tight in this round of 16, I also expect it to be a 1-0 or 2-0 victory.

Euro 2020 picks: Germany to advance (+100), and both teams to score NO (-106)

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