English Premier League Golden Boot up for grabs

With only 12 full matchdays left in the English Premier League season, the Golden Boot standings are fairly competitive, with seven players sitting between 13 and 17 goals.

While a couple are unlikely to keep pace, such as the injured Marcus Rashford, there are five players who still have a realistic chance to lead the league in goals.

Let’s look at those players and their current betting odds to help you find the best value for this wager.

Sergio Agüero, Manchester City (+160)

Agüero is the betting favorite, as he leads the line for the highest-scoring club in the Premier League. He is on a roll at the moment, with seven goals in his last five league appearances.

However, there are a few things that hurt his chances. City has all but conceded the title to Liverpool, down 18 points with only 13 matches remaining, so the Citizens are expected to go full throttle toward winning the Champions League.

With Pep Guardiola notorious for rotating his squad, it’s likely Agüero will be rested for any matches preceding a Champions League fixture.

He is also no longer the primary penalty taker. İlkay Gündoğan has been getting the spot-kick attempts when they are on the pitch together. While that might change after Gündoğan’s miss in a 2-0 loss to Spurs last time out, near-automatic goals from the spot is another hit to Agüero's value.

Jamie Vardy, Leicester City (+225)

Vardy is the best value on this list, and he is currently in winning position.

He and Leicester City have nothing to concern themselves with beyond the Premier League, aside from an occasional FA Cup match. Expect Vardy to lead the attack in all of Leicester’s remaining 13 matches in league play, which ups his value over all others on this list. Vardy also lays sole claim to any spot kicks his team will earn with him on the pitch.

But Vardy is in a bit of a cold spell. The English striker has scored only once in his last seven league appearances, and has failed to score in his last five.

If he can regain his scoring form, he has a very favorable schedule ahead. Five of Leicester’s remaining matches come against teams in the bottom six of the table, and Vardy has found the back of the net six times against those teams this season.

Mohamed Salah, Liverpool (+450)

Salah is the trickiest player on this list to figure out. The joint-winner of the Golden Boot last year was a machine, with 22 goals, but this season he has been inconsistent.

He tends to score in bunches, but has been getting hot. After scoring only two league goals in October and November combined, and only three in December, the Egyptian has found the back of the net five times in six Premier League fixtures since the start of the calendar year.

The problem for Salah bettors is that Liverpool needs just seven wins in their final 13 matches to clinch the Premier League title, if Manchester City wins out. The Reds will likely secure the crown before that, so Salah will probably not play in all 13 of their remaining matches. He will instead be rested for Champions League matches, where they are the second favorite to repeat as the kings of Europe.

While Salah’s form is trending upward, he is unlikely to repeat as Golden Boot winner.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Arsenal (+1100)

Aubameyang is the worst value on the board, because Arsenal struggles to score goals. The Gunners have found the back of the net only eight times in their last nine league matches, and have only 32 goals this season.

Last season’s joint-winner of the Golden Boot, Aubameyang’s 44% goal contribution rate is second in the Premier League to only Danny Ings, who has 14 of Southampton’s 31 goals. Aubameyang also will likely be featured more in Europa League play, which means he is going to miss some Premier League matches. 

Arsenal currently sit 10th in the table, so the Gunners will need to win the Europa League to secure a spot in Champions League next season. While the payout would be nice, Aubameyang’s odds of finishing at the top of the Golden Boot standings are slim.

Tammy Abraham, Chelsea (+2200)

If you want a longshot, Abraham is your man. Chelsea’s top scorer got off to a flying start, with seven goals in three matches early in the season, but has trailed off. He has scored just four times since the start of December, and has only two goals in his last 10 Premier League matches.

However, Chelsea is fighting for a top-four position, which guarantees Champions League competition next season. This means the Blues will likely prioritize the domestic competition over their European fight, and they will likely be eliminated by Bayern Munich in the Round of 16, anyway.

Liverpool and Manchester City still await on the schedule, so Chelsea will be determined to make the most of their remaining matches, and Abraham will be relied upon to find the back of the net. At these odds, it's worth a flyer.

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