Champions League preview: Expect goals From PSG and Dortmund

The Champions League knockout rounds begin this week, with half of the round of 16 facing off in first-leg action. There are some interesting matchups this week, with two of the top favorites both playing Tuesday afternoon.

We are here to help break down the matches and give you some free picks.

Liverpool travels to Madrid to face a club that has been hit with an injury crisis. While they will have the services of some players back for Tuesday’s match, Atlético will be without João Félix, who missed training Monday with pharyngotonsillitis.

With Kieran Trippier and Héctor Herrera also sidelined, it will be important for Saúl and Thomas Partey to have excellent performances in central midfield if they want a result. Atlético has slid to fourth in the La Liga table, with just five points from their last five league matches, and scored only three goals during that stretch.

Liverpool will likely face a tightly packed defense, which they are used to facing in the Premier League. Over the weekend Norwich sat back and tried to counter, but Liverpool eventually took the 1-0 win thanks to Sadio Mané’s goal in the 78th minute. Liverpool has thrived in tight contests, with 12 Premier League wins by only one goal.

Liverpool’s defense is underrated, and if Fabinho starts at the base of the midfield, I do not see Atlético finding the back of the net. The Reds are one of the best sides in Europe, and with the Premier League all but clinched, their primary focus should shift to winning a second consecutive Champions League title.

Champions League free picks: Liverpool +115, Liverpool win to zero +195

This may be the most exciting and entertaining match in the round of 16. Few teams have scored more in domestic play than Dortmund this season, with 63 goals in 22 matches. Dortmund has scored four or more goals in three of its last five matches.

January signing Erling Haaland—who during the group stage became the sixth player to score in five straight Champions League matches while with Red Bull Salzburg—has scored eight goals in his last five Bundesliga starts. Dortmund will rely on Haaland, as it will be without the injured Julian Brandt and Marco Reus.

The problem for Dortmund is its leaky defense, which is great news for PSG, which has 67 goals in Ligue 1 through 25 matches. The Parisians found the back of the net 17 times in the group stage, and have scored 21 goals in their last five fixtures overall. Kylian Mbappé and Neymar were both rested for this weekend’s match, so their first team will be fit and ready.

Neither of these sides are known to sit back and defend, and both have dynamic attackers, with a nose for goals. I expect four or more goals, especially because PSG will look to grab at least one away goal.

Champions League free picks: Over 3.5, Haaland to score anytime +130

Spurs have had a resurgence under José Mourinho. Only Liverpool has more points in the Premier League since his arrival in North London. Being this successful with Harry Kane on the sideline is even more impressive, as Mourinho has unleashed the trio of Son Heung-min, Lucas Moura, and Steven Bergwijn on opposing defenses.

Tottenham has scored at least twice in five of its last seven outings, but has kept a clean sheet only twice in that same span.

Injuries have piled up for RB Leipzig, and American midfielder Tyler Adams injured his calf this past week. He joins Kevin Kampl, Ibrahima Konaté, and captain Willi Orban on the sideline for the first leg of the fixture.

Add the suspension to Dayot Upamecano, and the visitors have only one central defender to face Spurs. Pressure will be on Timo Werner to produce an important away goal, as his scoreless run through five matches has seen him lose the lead for the Bundesliga Golden Boot.

Leipzig went unbeaten on the road in the group stage, but its 3-0 win over the weekend over lowly Werder Bremen was its first win in four matches.

Champions League free pick: Tottenham +145

Atalanta is a heavy favorite over a Valencia side currently sitting seventh in La Liga and only escaped the group stage with a final-day victory over Ajax.

Valencia has also struggled on the road, compared to at home, where it has not lost in 14 consecutive league fixtures. Injuries and suspensions will play a role in team selection, as Los Ches will be without Gabriel Paulista, who was sent off against Ajax. Also, fellow defender Ezequiel Garay’s season is over because of an ACL tear.  

Atalanta’s fans will be ecstatic to host their first Champions League knockout match, which seemed unlikely after the club conceded 11 goals in the first three group-stage matches. Atalanta turned things around and allowed only one goal in its final three matches of the group stage.

Everything lately has revolved around Josip Iličić and Papu Gómez, who have combined for 11 goals and six assists in their last eight league matches, but neither have found the back of the net in their last two outings.

Valencia will look to bunker and get a result, but with Paulista and Garay out, that will likely be a tough ask. Valencia will likely find a goal on the break against an Atalanta side that loves to attack and has kept only one clean sheet in their last seven matches. This match could go either way, but there will be goals to be had, so go with the Over.

Champions League free pick: Over 2.75

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