Champions League preview: Bayern Munich vs. Lyon

If there was any doubt which team is the best in the world, it was laid to rest Friday. As the entire soccer world watched, Bayern Munich decimated Barcelona, 8-2.

Now, Bayern will face a Lyon team that has defied the odds, with victories over Juventus and Manchester City, to advance to the Champions League semifinal.

Lyon will yet again be the underdog and will be out to prove itself worthy of a spot in the final.

Let’s break down the match and help you find the best value.

Neither team has any suspension issues, thanks to UEFA changing the rules to reset all bookings after the Round of 16. As such, we should see the same lineups that were deployed for their previous matches.

Manchester City exposed a Lyon weakness

Lyon has deployed a three-man back line of late, which allows it to run a counter-pressing style and attack in numbers when it gains possession. The attack, led by Memphis Depay and Houssem Aouar, can be prolific if given space to work, and Jason Denayer has been outstanding in the back.

However, Manchester City exposed the weakness of the Lyon system multiple times. Raheem Sterling got into space behind and was too much for Marcelo to handle. Had City been able to finish its chances, Lyon would have been knocked out easily Saturday. Lyon’s back line has also shown it can struggle when pressed, which plays into the Bavarians’ hands.

Bayern can counter, too

Bayern will not be as wasteful with opportunities, and the team sets up wonderfully to expose Lyon’s system. Serge Gnabry is in outstanding form and can take on the Sterling-esque role, as can Thomas Muller and Kingsley Coman.

Bayern also has experienced on-ball defenders, who won’t be harried by the pressure. Bayern also showed Friday just how overwhelming its own press can be. If Lyon gives up the chances it offered to City, this could turn into a rout.

Ride Bayern with your wagers, but get creative

Bayern is unbeaten in 25 straight, has won its last 20 matches, and should roll. However, here is no value in taking Bayern to win in full time.

Instead, let’s start with the first half. Bayern loves to fly out of the gate, and the Asian Handicap provides value. You can also get a solid return on Over 1.5 goals for the half.

I would usually tell you to take Robert Lewandowski to score, but that prop has also lost all value. However, you can still get a price with a bet that he will score on a header. He has headed one home in his last two matches.

If Wednesday goes like the Barcelona match, with plenty of goals in the first half, don’t forget to look at the live betting odds, as “Bayern to score the next goal” was a virtual ATM in the last match.

Champions League picks: Bayern win/over 1.5 1H (+105), Bayern win/over 3.5 goals (-110), Lewandowski to score via header (+400)