Poker Veteran of 50 Years: Taking the Luck out of Poker

“If there weren’t luck involved, I would win every time.”   – Phil Hellmuth

You can’t take the luck out of poker

Phil Hellmuth’s quote, like the title of this article, is tempered with a hint of sarcasm, maybe even humor. Because as everyone knows, you can’t take the luck out of poker any more than you can take the stripes off a tiger. 

By its very nature, be it variance or opportunity—luck or good fortune is as big a part of poker as skill.

In the long run, skill will prevail over luck; however, poker is played one hand, one bet, or even one card at a time. It is being played in the “here and now” and “in the long run” is in the “future.” No matter how far ahead you are in any hand statistically, or how well you play, you are always vulnerable to the unexpected, which is commonly known as “luck.” Statistics—based on the larger number of hands played—don’t always apply to any one single hand.

Example: flip a coin and it is 50/50 to land on heads or tails. Flip a coin 10 times and it might come heads 8 times and tails 2 times or 80/20. Flip it one million times and the numbers will invariably be very close to 50/50. That’s the law of “small numbers” over the law of “large numbers.” Hand by hand and game by game are a small sample size where anything can happen.

Winning poker is never easy, especially given the endless flop possibilities that can make almost every hand vulnerable to sets, straights, flushes and who knows what. Most will also agree that poker is a game of skill, that can be thwarted by intermittent strokes of luck.

The concept of “any two cards can win any hand” is never far from the truth  

The luck part of the game comes in two forms—the luck that works in your favor and the luck that goes against you. Luck sneaks its way into hands in several ways. After all, luck doesn’t work alone; it needs some help to accomplish its goal and you, as the player, are the enabler. Luck is energized and motivated when it gets to see free cards, or can show up when you don’t bet enough to keep it out. It is your strategic betting action, or in many cases inaction, that allows luck to sneak in its ugly head and ruin your hand.

Two prime factors that contribute to the luck aspect of the game are the randomness of card distribution and short-term variance. The combination of getting favorable cards riddled by some bad beats is a marriage that cannot always be overcome by good play.

Being good at the skill part of poker is challenging, but nothing compared to mastering the luck aspect of the game. 

You can minimize the risks to the point where you play fewer hands, tighten your range and make smaller bets. But is that really the answer? When you’re playing the game properly, you always seem to be putting yourself at risk. That’s what betting does—it’s a form of aggression, which can be responded to with even more aggression and adding more risk. An endless cycle.

We all know that luck can show up at the most inopportune moment of the game, so how can we protect ourselves? Neutralizing the luck factor requires a comprehensive plan of action. Knowing and applying a broad range of tactics can be helpful. 

Ten tips to help minimize the luck factor

• Tighten the range of cards you play, start with stronger hands. 
• Make better decisions and avoid hero plays.
• Stop chasing after straights or flushes.
• Employ strategic bet sizing and minimize overbetting.
• Use pot control, especially on draw-heavy boards.
• Play good position poker.
• Let the flop help influence your action.
• Minimize your bluffing.
• Make sure the pot odds are in your favor.
• Most importantly, know when to fold.

Does that mean you won’t get sucked out on or they won’t hit their 3 and 4 outer—no! But what you are doing is starting to level the playing field. 

Give your skill set a chance to work for you.