Point spreads not catching up to Porzingis absence

The Boston Celtics compiled a league-best 64-18 record during the regular season, ranking top five in offense and defense. Boston led in points per game (120.6), offensive rating (122.2), points per possession (1.22), and blocks, and they’re up 1-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals after defeating Indiana 133-128 in overtime of Game 1.

But the Celtics are not at full strength presently. They miss big man Kristaps Porzingis, who has been sidelined since injuring his right calf in Game 4 of the opening series against Miami. Boston expects to get Porzingis back at some point during the Indiana series, and the Celtics are not the same high-powered team without him.

However, one wouldn’t know that by looking at the point spreads. The Celtics are still heavily favored in every game, just like they would be with Porzingis, and they’re currently on a 1-4 run against the spread (ATS), winning but not covering games.

Boston is 0-4 ATS when favored by double-digit margins in the last five games.

Jayson Tatum (27.1 points and 8.6 rebounds per game) and Jaylen Brown lead the way for the Celtics, and the surrounding cast has been outstanding all season. Boston made some significant offseason moves, allowing Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, and Malcolm Brogdon to sign elsewhere as free agents and signing Jrue Holiday and Porzingis.

Holiday and Porzingis were terrific during the regular season, key contributors who essentially make up a “Big Four” for the Celtics along with Tatum and Brown. Boston also relies upon quality role players in Derrick White and Al Horford. That’s the Celtics' top six.

They’re now down to a top five, and it’s not the same team. Boston isn’t winning games with the same dominance we witnessed in the regular season, but the lines have not caught up.

Bettors playing against inflated point spreads have turned a profit in Porzingis’ absence.

Boston is favored by nine points in Game 2 Thursday night. Along with grabbing the points, we will continue to side with the Pacers as heavy underdogs for the rest of the series.

Boston hopes to have Porzingis back for Game 4. And while it’s unrealistic to expect him to be in game shape after being sidelined since late April, the point spread won't reflect it.