Will Dak Prescott bounce back in 2021? Projecting the Cowboys QB's passing yardage

The Dallas Cowboys kick off the official start of the NFL preseason Thursday night in Canton, Ohio, but one player you won’t see in action is franchise quarterback Dak Prescott.

While the sixth-year veteran, who missed 11 games last season because of a dislocated ankle, has nursed his foot back to health, Prescott is currently treating a new ailment — a muscle strain in his right shoulder.

The two-time Pro Bowler likely would not have played in Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, regardless of his injury status, but his recent shoulder issue, which sprung up in last week’s padded practices, is a concern for the Cowboys’ franchise quarterback.

Dallas’ front office has high hopes for the former Offensive Rookie of the Year, whom they signed to a four-year, $160 million extension in March.

Earlier this week, second-year head coach Mike McCarthy spoke of Prescott’s shoulder, saying, "We’ve kind of taken a step back… After research and looking at (it), we just don’t want this to turn into something big... We’re just being a little more conservative with the rehab."

Prescott has not made a pass at practice since last Wednesday, and may be on a "pitch count" leading up to Week 1, when Dallas faces the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on Thursday Night Football.

In light of Prescott’s new injury, plus already-existing worries regarding his ankle, optimism surrounding his 2021 production is cautious, at best.

TwinSpires Sports has set the Over/Under on Prescott’s passing yardage for the upcoming 17-game season at 4,900.5 yards.

To hit the Over, Prescott would need to average 288.29 yards per game, a number he exceeded in the 2019 season (306.4 YPG) and his injury-shortened 2020 season (371.2 YPG).

Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore has been a huge part in Prescott’s statistical leap. In 2019, when Moore assumed his current role, the Cowboys ranked first in total offense in the league and second in passing yards per game (302.8). Prescott threw for a career-high 4,902 yards that year and amassed 1,856 through five games in 2020.

Part of the reason Prescott’s yards-per-game average was exceptionally high last season was because of Dallas’ tendency to fall behind in games.

With a historically awful defense, the Cowboys consistently dug themselves into significant holes, which the offense was forced to combat by supercharging the passing game.

In the offseason, Dallas attempted to address their issues by hiring a new defensive coordinator, former Atlanta Falcons head coach Dan Quinn, who won a Super Bowl as defensive coordinator of the Seattle Seahawks during the "Legion of Boom" era.

The Cowboys also focused on defense in the draft and acquired Penn State standout Micah Parsons with the 12th overall pick. Improvement on that side of the ball would allow Dallas to return to a more multi-faceted offensive game plan and let Ezekiel Elliott get back to his workhorse role at running back.

A more balanced attack would likely result in a dip in Prescott's passing yardage, but the greater concern to his statistical output is his health.

Predicting Prescott's 2021 passing yardage

If the franchise QB misses two or more games, he’ll be hard-pressed to top 4,900 yards this season.

The Cowboys can’t afford to lose Prescott for extended time in 2021, considering their current depth at quarterback, so keeping him upright will be of utmost importance.

Dallas' conservative approach with Prescott this offseason will likely continue into the regular season, as they need to protect both his shoulder and ankle for a potential playoff run. The Cowboys won't force anything with their quarterback and will rely on Elliott much more than they did last season.

It’s too risky to back the Over on Prescott’s passing yards at this stage. We’ll likely see a regression in his numbers, but an overall boost in production on both sides of the ball for Dallas.

Pick: Under 4,900.5 passing yards