Week 2 NFL Preseason (Friday, Aug 17)

by Fairway Jay

A good approach in Week 2 NFL preseason betting is to look for 0-1 SU teams playing 1-0 SU teams and support the winless underdog. That would be the Miami Dolphins (+3) at Carolina Panthers on Friday, Aug. 17.  Sharp bettors have already snatched the hook as the Dolphins were +3.5 mid-week.

Preseason match-ups are essentially meaningless, glorified scrimmages and practice games. Coaches are more interested in evaluating players and those that need more playing time to determine if they might be a starter, and other backups that can contribute as needed and on special teams while trying to make the 53-man roster.

In Week 1, eight of the league’s star quarterbacks did not play - Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tom Brady (Patriots), Philip Rivers (Chargers), Matthew Stafford (Lions), Drew Brees (Saints), Alex Smith (Redskins), Jared Goff (Rams), and Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers). So review quarterback depth charts and rotations and look for some coaches to announce assigned playing time for quarterbacks and starting players.

WEEK 2 NFL PRESEASON Carolina Panthers -165 | -3.0 -109 | O 42 -115 Miami Dolphins    +120 | +3.0 -121 | U 42 -115

Last week’s results often impact public perception during the football season, and that’s also the case in some preseason games. In this match-up between the Dolphins and Panthers, Carolina won at Buffalo last week 28-23 as a 3-point underdog. Motivation can be found in different ways in preseason football, and Carolina and their coach Ron Rivera is not one to care as much. Rivera has had two winning exhibition seasons in eight years, and he knows what he has at quarterback so don’t expect much playing time from Cam Newton or key starters in week 2.

"...review quarterback depth charts and rotations and look for some coaches to announce assigned playing time..."

The Dolphins offense has more to prove after finishing 28^thin scoring last year at less than 18 points per game. That was without QB Ryan Tannehill, who missed the entire season with injury. Tannehill returns as starter and needs more reps, and he’ll be better than last week when he misfired on a pair of passes in his only series in a 26-24 home loss to Tampa Bay as a -2.5 favorite. With Osweiler and Fales taking some snaps and series as well, we’ll give the Dolphins an edge at QB as Carolina turns to Gilbert and Heinicke more this week.

Market perception will put the public bettors on Carolina. But the sharps are taking the Dolphins in Week 2 NFL preseason, and that’s the percentage play.

For wagering purposes, also note the adjustment of the total in the Miami/Carolina contest to a week-high 43 points. Last week, Miami’s game total was 34.5 and Carolina’s 37.5.

BONUS Week 2 NFL Preseason Pick A similar 0-1 SU vs. 1-0 SU matchup Friday is Buffalo (0-1) at Cleveland (1-0), a game between two teams that are projected to miss the playoffs. The Bills are a 3-point ‘Dog and the OVER has taken money up to 41.5. The sharps are really against Buffalo this season while Cleveland should have a sharp rise in wins. That’s mostly meaningless in a preseason match-up, but both teams have QB competitions for the starting spots that are worth watching and evaluating.