Washington Football Team vs. Dallas Cowboys: The best player prop bets for SNF

Washington and Dallas meet for the second time this month when they face off on SNF at AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys are 10-4 and in the mix to be No. 1 seed in the NFC, while Washington’s playoff hopes have taken a huge hit after losing two straight games.

The Cowboys won in Washington two weeks ago 27-20, but took their foot off the gas in the second half after heading into halftime with a 24-0 lead. Now on home soil, they’re 10.5-point favorites.

We’ve taken a close look at this matchup and have the three best player props below.

Dak Prescott Over/Under 279.5 Passing Yards

Washington’s defense has been regularly shredded this season as WFT have given up an average of 260.6 passing yards per game – only the Seahawks and the Ravens have given up more. But the Cowboys' passing offense simply isn’t clicking like it was earlier in the season, and this line looks too high on reflection.

Dak Prescott has simply not been as sharp since returning from a calf injury that kept him out of Week 8. In the first six weeks this season, Prescott was averaging 302.2 yards per game and 8.4 yards per attempt, but that’s fallen to just 255 yards per game in the seven games since he returned.

Two weeks ago, the Washington Football Team held him to just 211 yards despite 39 attempts, as Prescott completed a season-low 56.4% of his passes. He has managed to climb above 238 passing yards just once in the last four games, and although the stats suggest this is a favorable matchup, it’s hard to trust the Over.

The Cowboys have won six games this season by eight points or more – something they are predicted to do here – and across those games Prescott has averaged just 246.5 passing yards per outing. If they get up big in this one, don’t be surprised if they lean on Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

Washington has given up more than 280 yards passing just once in the last eight games, so take the Under.

Pick: Under 279.5 Passing Yards (-114)

Terry McLaurin Over/Under 58.5 Receiving Yards

McLaurin is affectionately nicknamed Scary Terry, but the only thing frightening about him of late has been his receiving yards per game. He’s had four monster games this season – 100 yards or more against the Panthers, Giants, Packers, and Falcons – but in the other 10 he’s had 62 yards or fewer.

McLaurin is ranked 32nd among receivers in yards per game, and it’s not for a lack of looks. He gets 7.86 targets per game, just outside the top 20 in all receivers, but he simply hasn’t been making catches – his 57.3% catch success rate is the worst of his NFL career.

Part of that must lie with his QB. Taylor Heinicke is averaging just 225.5 yards per game (18th among QBs who have started at least 10 games), and his average yards per attempt sit at just 7.0.

The matchup with Dallas earlier this month was a write-off for McLaurin who left the game with a concussion, but before that he hadn’t had a single catch despite three targets. Heinicke was held to just 122 yards in total.

There is no doubting McLaurin’s talents, but the issues Washington has at QB would hint that he’s going to fall Under this line more times than he hits the Over. Since Week 8, McLaurin has averaged just 44 yards a game, and with Heinicke only just returning from the COVID-19 list I’m even more worried for McLaurin’s outlook this week.

Pick: Under 50.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Michael Gallup Over/Under 46.5 Receiving Yards

Since his return in Week 10 from injury, Michael Gallup has had 46 targets for the Cowboys, posting 26 catches for a total of 320 yards. That leads the Cowboys in targets and yards, with only CeeDee Lamb catching more balls than Gallup since he returned.

In fact, in the four games Gallup and Amari Cooper have played together since Gallup returned, he has out-targeted Cooper 28-18 and racked up 170 yards to Cooper’s 151. There’s an argument that Gallup has leapfrogged Cooper in the pecking order, but we’ll leave that debate to be had over a few beers at the bar.

While we’re worried about Prescott putting up a big line in terms of passing yards, we can still expect Gallup to get seven or more targets on Sunday – a tally he has notched in four of his last five games. In his NFL career, Gallup has had seven or more targets in a game on 24 occasions, and in 75% of those he has cleared 47 receiving yards.

That includes four games against Washington when he’s had seven or more targets, and his receiving totals have been 98, 68, 60, and 41. Two weeks ago he hauled in five catches for 60 yards from nine targets, and a similar outing wouldn’t be surprising this week.

Pick: Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (-114)