Vikings vs. Saints: The best betting props for Christmas Day

I don’t want a lot for Christmas, there is just one thing I need. I don’t care about the presents, underneath the Christmas tree. Make my wish come true, all I want for Christmas is to be full of turkey, with an ice-cold beer in my hand, feet up on the couch, winning all four prop bets as the Vikings travel to New Orleans.

OK, so Mariah’s version was arguably a little catchier, but getting an NFC clash between the Vikings and Saints was exactly what I had on my list for Santa, so I’m a happy man.

The 6-8 Vikings have no chance of making the playoffs now after losing their last two games against Tampa Bay and the Bears, while New Orleans is flying in the NFC South at 10-4, but will want to bounce back after narrow defeats to the Eagles and the Chiefs.

So, as you tuck into your Christmas dinner and curse the terrible present you received from your mother-in-law, settle down and enjoy the four best prop bets on the big game.

Emmanuel Sanders receiving yards

Michael Thomas is on IR for the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury in what has been a frustrating season for the league’s star wide receiver. While it’s not good news for Thomas, it does open the door for a nifty prop bet on Emmanuel Sanders, who steps in as Drew Brees’ number one receiver.

Put simply, with Thomas on the shelf we can see a big uptick for Sanders. In seven games with Thomas this year, Sanders has averaged four targets a game and 30.7 yards a game. In the five games without Thomas those averages increase to 7.2 targets a game and 73 yards per game.

The Vikings haven’t allowed any receiver to go over 49 yards against them in the last three weeks but going off against Minnesota isn’t impossible. Devante Adams, Mo Alie-Cox, Will Fuller, and Julio Jones have all racked up 100+ yard games against the Vikings this season, and Sanders is likely to see a lot of third-string cornerback Chris Jones who has given up 23-of-27 pass attempts for 287 yards in his coverage. The opportunity, volume, and talent is there, so it’s worth backing the Overs.

Pick: Over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

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Kirk Cousins passing yards

Cousins was averaging 18.4 completions up until Week 11 this season, but since then he’s upped that to 27.5 as he’s chucked the ball more often in four games against the Panthers, Jaguars, Bucs, and Bears. He’s also only dipped under 270 passing yards once in the last six games, having thrown under 270 yards in seven of the previous eight.

But while that is all positive for Captain Kirk, it doesn’t get much tougher than a clash with the Saints. Since the Week 6 bye, New Orleans has allowed an average of just 6.4 yards per attempt and a total of 212 total passing yards per game. Nick Foles (272) and Matt Ryan (273) are the only two men who have thrown for more than 270 passing yards against the Saints since then.

Last week Patrick Mahomes was only able to manage 5.4 yards per attempt, and we all know Cousins isn’t anywhere near as mobile as the Chiefs signal caller. The Saints bring the second-most pressure in the league, so Cousins is going to be under the gun from the get-go.

Pick: Under 251.5 passing yards (-120)

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Dalvin Cook rushing yards

On Christmas day there are a few guarantees – Santa will come down the chimney, there’ll be a family row over dinner, and Dalvin Cook will continue to run wild. He’s just a phenomenal talent, and this year he's been extraordinary.

Since coming off the bye in Week 7, Cook has only dipped under 100 rushing yards twice – against the Bears when he racked up 96 yards, and in Week 12 against the Panthers when he was held to 61 yards.

The Saints have the fourth-highest ranking rush defence in the league and only Josh Jacobs (88 yards), David Montgomery (89 yards), and Miles Sanders (115 yards) have gone for more than 80 yards on the ground against New Orleans this year.

But Cook is a different beast and not even this match-up can scare me. He’s averaging 4.96 yards per carry since the Week 7 bye and should get another 18+ touches in this one.

Pick: Over 80.5 rushing yards (-115)

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Alvin Kamara receptions

Now that Drew Brees is back in action, we can expect Kamara’s target share in the Saints offense to return towards some form of stability. In games this year when Brees is at the helm, Kamara has averaged 8.6 targets a game and averaged seven catches a game off those targets.

23% of passes on the Saints offence this year have been targeted at Kamara and he’s caught almost twice as many balls as anyone else in the team. Brees has thrown an average of 35 times per game this year, and some quick math would suggest Kamara can expect another eight targets against the Vikings.

Expect Brees to go to Kamara even more now that Thomas is on the shelf, and he should comfortably be able to haul in at least six receptions and beat this line.

Pick: Over 5.5 receptions (-160)