Boost the Bankroll: NFL Parlay with Pittsburgh at Indianapolis for Week 4 of 2024

Two of five unbeaten NFL teams, Pittsburgh and Minnesota are the only teams in the league with a 3-0 record against the spread this season. There’s too much uncertainty presently surrounding the status of Jordan Love for Green Bay, which hosts Minnesota, but we will include Pittsburgh at Indianapolis among our Week 4 best bets. 

All lines courtesy of BetMGM; times listed are Eastern.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (1 p.m.): Bears -3

The Rams are too banged-up to avoid a regression following an emotional comeback win over San Francisco, overcoming a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat their bitter divisional rival. They could not hold form after a strong showing in Week 1, as they were blown out by Arizona after taking Detroit to overtime, and Chicago will be motivated to earn its first home win with Caleb Williams, who is starting to come on after passing for 363 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 3. 

Questionable play-calling cost Chicago at Indianapolis last week, but an elite defense still gave the Bears every opportunity to win. And Chicago’s pass defense (allowing only 165 passing yards per game) will be the difference this week, as it slows down a Rams offense missing Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. We like the Bears to win going away.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 p.m.): Under 43

Tampa Bay would be a rebound candidate, if healthy, after scoring only seven points in a blowout home loss to Denver last week, but the Bucs appear too limited. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are among the players listed as out or questionable for Week 4, along with the most of defensive line and other key contributors throughout the roster. Tampa figures to be conservative offensively. 

Philadelphia slowed down New Orleans’ high-scoring offense last week, winning 15-12, but the Eagles lost DeVonta Smith to injury and A.J. Brown remains out. Both teams will look to control the ball and rely on defense. We like the under.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (1 p.m.): Jets -7.5

Pittsburgh presented the game ball to Russell Wilson (who didn’t play) after winning at Denver in Week 2. The game meant something more to the Steelers, and they aren’t the only ones seeking payback toward Denver’s ownership, front office, and present coaching staff.

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have had this one circled since the schedule was announced. They’ve worked long and hard for this day. New York’s offensive coordinator, former Denver head coach Nathaniel Hackett, didn’t make it an entire season (fired) after Denver recklessly traded away a bundle of assets for Wilson in 2022, and new coach Sean Payton made sure to embarrass his predecessor publicly by highlighting his ineptitude. After shaking off the rust and getting the Jets back on track offensively last week, Rodgers will seek payback, and the Jets will continue to progress in a double-digit win.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (4:05 p.m.): Under 40.5

San Francisco squandered a 21-7 lead to the Rams in the second half last week, and the 1-2 Niners are seeking answers after being exploited by Sam Darnold and Matthew Stafford the last two weeks. 

New England’s defense is eligible to frustrate a dysfunctional San Francisco that doesn’t score as readily without sidelined stars Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, and we’re not expecting an offensive explosion from either team. The Niners sustained a huge loss along their defensive front last week with tackle Javon Hargrave, but New England’s offense remains a mess. This figures to be an ugly, low-scoring game.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (1 p.m.): Colts -1.5

Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging less than one touchdown per game; defense has been the difference in wins over Atlanta, Denver, and the Chargers. Opposing quarterbacks feel the heat from Pittsburgh’s outstanding pass rush, but the Steelers will be taken out of their comfort zone by Indianapolis, which can be dynamic offensively behind Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. 

The Colts feature the top-ranked offensive line, according to PFF, with left guard Quenton Nelson leading all offensive linemen in the NFL with a 90.1 pass-blocking grade, and Indianapolis put up three rushing touchdowns on Chicago’s ferocious defense last week. 

The Steelers will continue to improve from an offensive perspective, but Indianapolis figures to exploit their scoring liabilities early in the season.