Tom Brady favored to lead NFL in playoff passing yards

Tom Brady is two games away from securing his seventh career Super Bowl title (and possibly his fifth Super Bowl MVP Award), and first with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 43-year-old signal caller has played no small part in his team’s advancing to the NFC Championship Game. In fact, no quarterback has thrown for more yards than him (580) this postseason. As a result, Brady is favored at +110 to lead the NFL in playoff passing yards.

Let’s dive into this market and analyze the chances of each of the four quarterbacks in action this Sunday.

Brady has built a significant lead

Brady had a big game against Washington in the Wild Card round, throwing for 381 yards. He had only 199 passing yards against the New Orleans Saints in the Divisional Round, but part of that was due to his defense constantly supplying short fields for Tampa’s offense, as they forced four turnovers in a 30-20 triumph.

Brady’s nearest rival in this field is Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+130), who has thrown for 530 yards (324 against the Indianapolis Colts, 206 against the Baltimore Ravens) in two postseason games this year. If Brady advances to the Super Bowl and Allen does not, Allen will have a hard time overcoming this 50-yard deficit, regardless of how well he plays in a potential defeat.

Allen is more likely to advance this weekend

Though the Bills are facing the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium this Sunday, they appear to have a better chance of winning than Tampa Bay does against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.

It’s questionable whether Patrick Mahomes will be at full strength on Sunday following a scary injury in the Divisional Round that looked like a concussion. And the Chiefs’ defense will be hard-pressed to prevent the Allen-Stefon Diggs connection, particularly in the red zone, where Kansas City allows a league-worst 77.5% touchdown conversion rate.

The Packers, who are 11-0 in games in which they don’t commit a turnover, are unlikely to fall prey to the Bucs’ ball-hawking defense. Aaron Rodgers and company produced 484 yards of offense in the Divisional Round against a Los Angeles Rams team that was No. 1 in total defense in 2020.

What about Rodgers and Mahomes?

By virtue of having a bye during Wild Card weekend, Rodgers (+500) and Mahomes (+800) have some catching up to do in this area.

Rodgers went for 296 yards last week, and would have to nearly double that number just to pull ahead of Brady’s current total. Mahomes threw for only 255 yards last week, due in part to his early exit.

Barring a pair of mammoth games by either quarterback against two of the better defenses they’ve faced all year, these longshots will not cash in.