The 5 Super Bowl trends you need to know before betting

The Super Bowl is creeping closer and the excitement for football fans is about to reach a fever pitch.

But as we get closer to the game, it is important to remember how history can teach us a thing or two.

Italian philosopher George Santayana may have been the first to express the sentiment that those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and while I suspect George didn’t have a clue in 1905 that I’d be referencing him in a Super Bowl article, his point stands to reason.

The NFL is packed full of statistics, and here are the key trends you need to know ahead of Super Bowl LV.

Favorites usually come out on top

The favorite has a 35-19 straight-up record in the Super Bowl.

The Chiefs were favored 12 months ago and put away the 49ers, and the Patriots justified favoritism when they defeated the Rams in 2019.

But since 2007, the underdog has a 7-6 straight-up record, starting with the New York Giants' shocking upset of the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. This recent run includes one of the most lopsided upsets, when the Seahawks hammered the Broncos, 43-8, in Super Bowl XLVIII. The Broncos were underdog winners two years later, when they defeated the Panthers, 24-10.

However, recency bias aside, the record of favorites speaks for itself. The best team usually wins.

But can the favorite cover?

Favorites have a 27-25-2 record against the spread.

The Chiefs comfortably covered last year, and the Patriots covered in 2015, 2017, and 2019, which gives favorites a 4-2 ATS record in the last six years.

The favorite has a 9-5 record with spreads of 7.5 or more. When the line is three points or less, the favorite’s ATS record drops to 8-6.

The biggest spread in Super Bowl history is 18. The 49ers were 18-point favorites in Super Bowl XXIX and duly obliged, beating the Chargers 49-26.

The only other time the spread was that high was in Super Bowl III, when the favored Baltimore Colts lost to the New York Jets, 16-7, arguably the most significant upset in the big game.

High-scoring shootouts or tight affairs?

If you thought betting on the spread was a close call historically, the totals market is tighter than Homer Simpson’s waistband.

The Over has a record of 26-26-1 (data is unavailable for Super Bowl I). The Chiefs’ 31-20 win over the 49ers last year was just under the 52.5 total. A year before, the Patriots 13-3 win over the Rams fell a long way short of the 56.5 total and was the lowest-scoring Super Bowl in history.

The highest total (58) in Super Bowl history came in Super Bowl LI, and the 34-28 thriller between the Patriots and Falcons put the total Over. The highest-scoring Super Bowl was XXIX, when the 49ers defeatd the Chargers, 49-26. That game had a total of 54, so anyone on the Over was dancing through the streets.

Recent dominance belongs to the AFC

The NFC and AFC (or AFL and NFL, before the merger) are tied at 27 wins in Super Bowl history, but the AFC holds a 6-2 record in the last eight seasons.

The Seahawks and the Eagles are the only NFC representatives to win the Super Bowl since 2012, while the Patriots, Ravens, Broncos, and Chiefs all obliged for the AFC.

Advantage Chiefs and Bills?

Top-seed turvy

In the last 16 Super Bowls, the team better seed has a 2-8 record, with six games featuring equal seeds. That includes last year, when the Chiefs were ranked No. 2 in the AFC and the 49ers were the top seed in the NFC.

The Patriots in Super Bowl LI and the Steelers in Super Bowl XLIII are the only wins for better seeds since 2005, and even the latter came down to the wire!

Flying under the radar maybe has its advantages?

The same could be said for teams that enter the title game with a better record over the season. Although teams with a better record are 29-18 straight up, they have lost 10 of the last 11. The Patriots were 14-2 when they defeated the 11-5 Falcons at Super Bowl LI, but that is the exception to the rule.