The NFL’s most reliable ATS teams over the last 5 years
Kansas City Chiefs running back Damien Williams heads up field against the Houston Texans. (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)
March 16th, 2020
The start of the 2020 NFL season is still far away, which gives you all the more time to figure out the best betting strategies ahead of kickoff.
Below we crunch the data on the most reliable NFL teams against the spread over the past five seasons, to help you earn even more when football is back in session.
NFL's top 5 ATS records of 2019
| Team | 2019 ATS record | Cover percentage | Margin of victory | Average amount of points team covered spread by |
|---|
Kansas City Chiefs | 13-5-1 | 72.2% | 9.7 | +4.8 |
LA Rams | 10-5-1 | 66.7% | 1.9 | -0.8 |
New Orleans | 11-6-0 | 64.7% | 6.5 | +2.1 |
Arizona | 9-5-2 | 64.3% | -5.1 | +0.5 |
San Francisco | 11-7-1 | 61.1% | 10.1 | +6.0 |
Last season's Super Bowl champion, the Kansas City Chiefs, dominated with a 13-5-1 record against the spread. The team also ranked fourth in margin of victory (9.7 points) and average amount of points by which it covered (+4.8).
The Chiefs have become a reliable play ATS since 2015 and have ranked in the top 10 in cover percentage over the past four seasons.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens — owner of the league's best regular-season record in 2019 — came in first in margin of victory (13.7 points) but covered the spread just 58.8% of the time.
Saints edge Patriots for best 5-year cover percentage
Dating back to 2015, the Chiefs' average cover percentage ranked seventh in the league across five seasons, while the New England Patriots ranked just slightly better, with a 6.8 average ranking since 2015.
Patriots 48-9 SU off a loss since 2003. 41-16 ATS 🤯
— Jason McIntyre (@jasonrmcintyre) December 3, 2019
Patriots 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS off a loss since 2013 🤯
Patriots (-3) vs Chiefs Sunday 🤔
The New Orleans Saints have been the most reliable team against the spread. They have ranked as high as second and no lower than 11th in cover percentage over the past five seasons.
NFC North against the spread
If you're looking for a team in the NFC North to cover the spread, both Minnesota and Green Bay are excellent choices.
In 2015 Minnesota ranked first in cover percentage (82.3%, 14-3 record) and fourth in 2017 (61.1%, 11-7). The Vikings' performance has dipped some over the past two seasons, but they have reliably covered the spread at least 53% of the time in every season since 2015.
The Packers have ranked in the top five in cover percentage in 2015, 2016, and 2019. Though from 2017-2018, they only covered around 40% of games.
In 2018 Chicago topped the league in cover percentage (70.6%, 12-5 record), then tumbled down to last place in 2019 at 25%.
Worst NFL records against the spread:
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) December 3, 2019
Chicago Bears 3-9
Los Angeles Chargers 3-8-1
Atlanta Falcons 4-8
New York Giants 4-8
Philadelphia Eagles 4-8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4-8
The Detroit Lions have averaged a 47.5% cover rate over the last five years.
Stay away from Cleveland
Despite all the hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns in 2019, the team endured yet another underwhelming season. Last year the Browns achieved a 5-10-1 record against the spread and covered 33.3% of the time, good for 30th in the league.
From 2016-2017 Cleveland ranked last in cover percentage (25% both seasons) and tied for 27th in 2015.
In 2018, however, the Browns covered the spread 62.5% of the time, which ranked fourth in the NFL.
Best ATS season in history
In 2016 the New England Patriots covered the spread in 16 of 19 games (including the playoffs), which tied the 1989 San Francisco 49ers for the best ATS record in history.
The Niners were favorites in 15 of 16 regular-season games in 1989 and were favored by 9.5 points or more in half of those. San Francisco won the Super Bowl that season.
The Patriots' impressive ATS record in 2016 also coincided with a Super Bowl victory. This happened to be the same year Tom Brady sat out the first four games of the season on suspension.
Random stat here: the Patriots are 1-5 ATS with 3 straight-up losses as favorites in the Super Bowl under Brady/Belichick.
— Joe Dolan (@FG_Dolan) January 18, 2019
Only spread they covered as favorites: Super Bowl LI, which they trailed at one point by 25 points.
The 2007 Patriots team that won 18 straight games before a loss to the New York Giants in Super Bowl LII only covered the spread 52.6% of the time.
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