The best ways to make money betting on the NFL preseason
On Thursday night, the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Dallas Cowboys, 16-3, to cover the 2.5-point spread and hit the Under in the Pro Football Hall of Fame Game, the first matchup of the NFL preseason.
Neither Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott nor Steelers gunslinger Ben Roethlisberger played, as expected in the first preseason contest, while both teams rotated through their second- to fourth-string backups.
The Cowboys and Steelers are the only two teams that will compete in four preseason games, while the rest of the league drew a three-week preseason slate to prepare for the 17-game, regular-season schedule.
As NFL fans eagerly anticipate the start of the 2021 regular season, many will dip their toes in preseason wagering to hone their betting skills before games truly count.
While the NFL preseason may seem unpredictable, you can boost your bankroll with these exhibition games, if you do the proper research ahead of time.
To help you cash on the NFL’s warm-up act, let's take a look at the best ways to make money betting on the NFL preseason.
Look at coaches’ preseason records
Winning is hardly a priority in the preseason, for most NFL coaches. The primary focus is on position battles and evaluating talent, before teams finalize 53-man rosters Aug. 31.
However, not all coaches roll over during exhibition play. John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens own a 17-game win streak in the preseason, which dates back to 2015.
Minnesota Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is another guy who doesn’t like to lose, no matter the stakes. He is 20-5 in the preseason, while Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Caroll has a 25-15 record, and Jon Gruden is 6-2, since he returned to coach the Las Vegas Raiders in 2018. Gruden is also 10-0 in Week 1 of the preseason.
Current NFL coaches with best win percentage in preseason
Coach, team | Preseason record | Win percentage |
---|
Mike Zimmer, Minnesota Vikings | 20-5 | 80% |
John Harbaugh, Baltimore Ravens | 37-12 | 76% |
Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins | 3-1 | 75% |
Jon Gruden, Las Vegas Raiders | 36-18 | 67% |
Pete Carroll, Seattle Seahawks | 25-15 | 62% |
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers | 32-23 | 58% |
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills | 7-5 | 58% |
Among the coaches who seem to care little about their preseason record are two of the best in the game — Kansas City Chiefs leader Andy Reid (39-45 record) and six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick (46-36).
Bet on bad teams
As reflected in the preseason records of Reid and Belichick, the teams that dominate in the regular season and postseason usually don’t perform as well in the preseason.
These franchises tend to have depth charts mostly determined ahead of Week 1 and play it safe in the preseason to stay healthy, while the teams who fared poorly the season prior have much more to figure out.
Many of the players on these “bad teams” are looking to rise up the depth chart during preseason play. The first- and second-stringers are also likely to take more snaps, compared to those on “good teams.”
Another factor to consider is whether a team hired a new coach in the offseason. Often, first-year coaches want to set a positive tone with a win in the preseason.
There are 7 new head coaches in the 2021 season
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) May 7, 2021
ATL Arthur Smith
DET Dan Campbell
HOU David Culley
JAX Urban Meyer
LAC Brandon Staley
NYJ Robert Saleh
PHI Nick Sirianni
Who has the best chance to win their division?#NFLScheduleRelease
Glean information from press conferences and team news
In the regular season, coaches rarely lay out their cards ahead of a game, but in the preseason, they are much more open with information.
To get the most accurate read on their game plan, it’s best to wait until the day of a matchup for any last-minute changes, particularly with injuries.
You can usually find out which quarterbacks will see playing time and for how long, as well as which position battles coaches plan to evaluate during the game.
McCarthy said preseason game against the Texans will serve as dress rehearsal for the season
— Clarence Hill Jr (@clarencehilljr) August 3, 2021
Knowing which part of the depth chart will see the most action and what a coach's priorities are ahead of a game will help you determine whether a team is likely to win against its opponent.
Bet preseason moneyline and totals
While spread betting is the most common type of wager made during the NFL regular season, many bettors prefer to bet the moneyline and points totals in the preseason.
Everyone that bet Over 31.5 tonight pic.twitter.com/UISh3WF4Ep
— TwinSpires Sportsbook 💵 (@TS_Sportsbook) August 6, 2021
NFL coaches despise overtime in exhibition games, so if a game is close at the end of regulation, you’ll see many risk a loss on a two-point conversion attempt, instead of going for an extra point that would push the game to extra minutes.
These types of coaching decisions can make spread betting difficult, though not impossible.
It's a bit easier to pick a team to win outright or search for value in totals markets.
A points total in the low 40s is high for a preseason game, so look to see which quarterbacks are expected to compete to better predict if the game will be high- or low-scoring.
With these strategies in mind, you can sharpen your betting skills and beef up your bankroll in the preseason, so you're ready to hit the ground running in Week 1 of the regular season.
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