The 5 best NFL player prop bets for the 2021 season

We are now less than 80 days away from the start of the 2021 NFL season!

While other major sports around the country use summertime to take centerstage, much of the work that goes into a successful NFL season is taking place away from the limelight during football’s offseason workouts. After all, the game’s elite don’t just walk onto the field and perform at their peak without a significant amount of preparation.

Like the players, successful bettors do some of their most important work during this relatively quiet period as well. Let’s look at five player props to take advantage as we eagerly await September.

Carson Wentz Passing Yards

Carson Wentz has had an unusual NFL career. The sixth-year quarterback entered the league as the second overall pick and had early success with the Philadelphia Eagles. However, recent poor luck with injuries combined with poor decision-making and ineffective throws put him on the sidelines as Jalen Hurts’ backup.

Wentz didn’t care for the backup role, and was moved to Indianapolis, where he is expected to be the starting quarterback. While in Philadelphia, Wentz threw over 3,700 yards in just two of five seasons. More notably, however, the game film shows a player that has lost his way. Wentz clearly suffered from one of the worst receiving groups in the league, but even when his options got open he looked indecisive and inaccurate.

Wentz will hopefully see a resurgence in Indianapolis while being reunited with head coach Frank Reich, but I expect a slow start from the Colts QB as he game manages behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league.

Pick: Under 3,750.5 (-125)

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Zach Wilson Touchdowns

Zach Wilson will be given plenty of opportunity to succeed in the NFL, and he may have all the tools to do so. But asking a rookie quarterback to throw 22 or more touchdowns on a bad team is a big request. Take the Under, and count on the Jets to continue their losing ways.

Pick: Under 21.5 (-112)

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Ezekiel Elliott Rushing Yards

The shelf life of an NFL running back seems to diminish every year, and despite the tremendous athleticism Ezekiel Elliott has shown in his career, he is likely no different. Elliott had his most productive season during his five years in the league during his rookie season, when he led the league and rushed for 1,631 yards. In year 3 he also led the league, but he has seen diminishing returns each of the last three seasons.

In 2020, Elliott’s yards per attempt dropped to a career-low 4.0 yards per carry, and the Dallas Cowboys’ offensive line isn’t as elite as it was a few years ago. Look for the Cowboys to continue their air assault with the bevy of wide receiver weapons they have, and for Elliott to stay below our oddsmakers' projected total.

Pick: Under 1,105.5 (-112)

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Julio Jones Receiving Yards

Julio Jones is finally out of Atlanta and has an upgrade at quarterback. He also has a formidable rushing attack to force cheating outside linebackers and safeties from helping out against him as much as they did while he was with the Falcons.

Look for one of the most feared receivers in the game to enjoy the change of scenery and go surpass 1,000.5 receiving yards.

Pick: Over 1,000.5 (-112)

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Josh Allen Passing Yards

Josh Allen has always been known for his big arm, but it wasn’t until the last year or two that he saw a major improvement in his accuracy. As a result, he has become one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL.

Buffalo Bills head coach Sean McDermott is an analytics fan, and is well aware that his best weapon is Allen and the passing game. The Bills went from 499 total pass attempts in Allen’s first season in 2018, to 596 in 2020. Look for Allen to get his number called plenty, and for the BIlls QB to have a huge season in 2021.

Pick: Over 4,600.5 (+108)