Super Bowl LV odds update: Bills surpass Saints for third-choice status

The 14-team NFL playoff field has been set, and the odds to win Super Bowl LV have shifted for almost every club since last week.

One of the more noteworthy moves was the Buffalo Bills going from fourth-choice at +900 to third-choice at +700, leap-frogging the New Orleans Saints (+700 to +750 week-over-week). Only the Kansas City Chiefs (+225, up from +200) and Green Bay Packers (+450, down from +500) are smaller prices in this market now. Are Bills bettors being smart, or is there a wiser wager to be had?

The Bills bludgeoned the Dolphins in Week 17

The Miami Dolphins controlled their playoff destiny on Sunday, but they were bum-rushed by a Bills team with No. 2 seed status on its mind. Buffalo scored 56 points en route to a 30-point victory that knocked the Dolphins out of postseason contention.

The Bills are now 7-1 straight-up in their last eight games and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. They are considerable favorites for their Wild Card weekend game with an Indianapolis Colts team that’s been regressing since Thanksgiving.

Quarterback Josh Allen has also been red-hot for Buffalo, even launching himself into the MVP discussion with his stellar numbers (69.2% completion rate, 7.9 yards per attempt, 37 touchdowns, 10 interceptions).

Buffalo defense remains a soft spot

The issues with the Bills’ “bend-but-don’t-break” defense have been largely hidden due to Allen’s sensational play and that fact the their recent opponents do not rank among the elite offensive units in the game.

The best offense Buffalo faced during their current six-game win streak was Pittsburgh’s 12th-rated unit by points per game. Two of their three losses in 2020 came to teams with offenses ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL – the Tennessee Titans (sixth) and the Chiefs (fourth).  

Saints face easier road to Tampa

The Saints squad that the Bills surpassed seems to be getting overlooked heading into postseason play.

New Orleans drew perhaps the easiest matchup of Wild Card weekend, as they host a Chicago Bears squad that lost six in a row earlier this year. Assuming they win that matchup, their toughest possible opponent in the divisional round would be the Seattle Seahawks, who’ve failed to top 23 points in four of their last six games. Again, the Saints would be the home team.

Drew Brees may not be his old self, but his fourth-ranked defense by yards allowed per game is more than capable of carrying this team to Super Bowl LV.

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