Steelers vs. Bills: The best betting props for SNF Week 14

So the unbeatable Pittsburgh Steelers are, well, beatable! Their Monday game against the Washington Football Team was hardly ideal, as they’d just played on Wednesday in a rearranged contest with the Baltimore Ravens. But a loss is a loss, and the Steelers move to 11-1 as they head up to Buffalo to face the 9-3 Bills.

The Bills’ only loss in the last six weeks was the heartbreaking Kyler Murray miracle game against the Arizona Cardinals. They’ve bounced back with a pair of 10-point wins against the Los Angeles Chargers and San Francisco 49ers, respectively.

The Steelers will be red-faced after that shock defeat to Washington, and will be coming in hot in what could be a low-scoring affair. The Pittsburgh offense isn’t the smoothest we’ve ever seen it, but their defense couldn’t be much stronger. Bring on Sunday Night Football.

James Conner rushing yards

James Conner is back after a two-game absence, and he couldn’t have asked for a much softer return than the Bills rush defense, which is ranked 24th in the NFL. Darrell Henderson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Damien Harris, and Kenyan Drake have all had 100 yards or more in matches with the Bills this season, as teams have found joy running the ball against Buffalo.

The problem for Conner is less the Bills, and more his own offensive line. The Steelers’ offensive line is creating it’s running backs just 0.92 yards before contact, which is the worst mark in the league. While that is a concern, the Bills are allowing a solid 4.52 yards per carry this season. With Conner in line for around 14 touches, that could bump him over 60 yards on the ground.

Last year against the Bills, Conner got just eight carries and still managed to rack up 42 yards. Off the COVID-19 list and back in the lineup, Conner’s workload should be enough to beat this line.

Pick: Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110)

Josh Allen passing yards

Josh Allen scorched a tough 49ers defense in Week 13, throwing 32 completions for 375 yards. But now he comes up against an even bigger challenge in the Steelers’ pass defense.

Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards or more for 22 games in a row. In last week’s game with Washington, Alex Smith became the only signal caller all season to throw for more than 270 yards against them. The Steelers do have injuries mounting up, with linebackers Devin Bush, Bud Dupree, and Robert Spillane all out along with corner back Joe Haden. However, their defensive unit has been so solid this season, it’s hard to see them slipping.

Allen has plenty of ability, but he can also put in some low totals, as shown already this year. He threw for just 154 yards against the New England Patriots, 122 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs, and 157 yards against the Chargers. The Steelers held Allen to just 139 yards in their Week 15 clash in 2019 and can keep him in check again this weekend.

Pick: Under 282.5 passing yards (-150)

Eric Ebron receiving yards

Ebron’s pair of drops in Week 13 means he has now dropped six passes this year that Ben Roethlisberger put into his hands. You don’t have to be an NFL genius to know that ain’t good.

However, don’t dump on Ebron just yet. For one, “Big Ben” loves throwing to him. In his last two games, Ebron has a huge 22 targets, and that isn’t a short-term boost either. If you go all the way back through seven weeks, he is still averaging almost eight targets a game. And in those seven games, he has gone for 36 yards or more in six of them. Not a shabby return for a “dropper.”

Ebron’s target share is the big win here though, because the Bills have been destroyed by tight ends this season. Buffalo is allowing a 74% catch-rate to tight ends, and an unbelievably high 8.11 yards per target. Back Ebron to rebound from the double-drop game with a good number of yards here.

Pick: Over 40.5 receiving yards (-120)

Cole Beasley receptions

Cole Beasley’s production is harder to predict than Donald Trump’s next outburst. Take his last six games. In three of them, he had a minimum of 11 targets and went for 109 yards or more in all of them. In the other three, he had four targets or less while failing to top 39 yards. Beasley’s targets are a lot like TikTok for me – incredibly difficult to figure out.

I’ve already talked about how I think Allen’s passing line is too high, although the Bills’ run game is so unreliable he is going to have to throw, and that’s good news for Beasley. It’s a tough game, but so was the 49ers game, and Beasley torched them for 130 yards and a touchdown.

The odds here are too good to turn down despite his inconsistencies.

Pick: Over 5.5 receptions (+115)

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