SNF Week 14: Steelers vs. Bills odds, preview, and pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1) are no longer undefeated, but they’ll look to solidify their grasp on the No. 1 seed in the AFC on Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC) when they visit the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (9-3). Can the Steelers avoid stringing together consecutive losses, or will the Bills cash in as tepid home favorites? Here’s our wagering preview.

Write Steelers loss off as “any given Monday”

Washington deserves high marks for taking down Pittsburgh on Monday evening, but Ben Roethlisberger and company were ripe for an upset.

The Steelers had just five days of rest following a Wednesday afternoon game against the Baltimore Ravens, while Ron Rivera’s men entered on 11 days’ rest. Pittsburgh was also missing its kicker, Chris Boswell, which negatively impacted the Steelers’ strategy, along with running back James Conner and others.

Pittsburgh looked like a tired team, dropping seven passes while failing to get any semblance of a run game going. They’ll be on a far more level playing field on Sunday night, with or without Boswell.

Conner is expected back in the lineup, which should help the Steelers establish the ground game against the Bills' 24th-rated run stoppers.

Bills will go as far as Josh Allen takes them

Buffalo’s defense boasts several playmakers like corner backs Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White, but the unit can best be described as “bend but don’t break.”

The Bills’ are 18th in points allowed per game (25.5) and 23rd in yards allowed per play (5.8). That’s forced Josh Allen to do a lot of heavy lifting in 2020. Fortunately for Buffalo fans, Allen has been up to the task.

Allen went 32-for-40 with 375 passing yards and four touchdowns in a win over the 49ers on Monday night. He’s fifth in the NFL this season in passing yards, sixth in touchdown passes, and seventh in passer rating.

However, Allen could be under duress for a large part of this game against a tenacious Steelers pass rush. Pittsburgh tied the NFL record for most consecutive games with at least one sack on Monday, and lead the league in sacks per game (3.7) by a healthy margin in 2020.

Steelers should win the third down battle

Buffalo leads the NFL in third-down conversion percentage (49.3). However, the Steelers’ defense is fourth in opponent third-down conversion percentage this year (36.1).

Pittsburgh’s offense is seventh in third-down conversion percentage (45.5), while the Bills’ defense is just 24th in opponent third-down conversion percentage (44.0).

Winning this battle in a game that projects to be close can be crucial.

Trends say roll with the underdog

The Steelers are 21-7-2 against the spread in their last 30 games as an underdog. They’ve also covered in four of their last five road games and are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games against AFC opponents.

The Bills have failed to cover in four of their last five conference games.

Score prediction: Steelers 27, Bills 24

NFL Pick: Steelers +2.5

Wager on all NFL Week 14 action on BetAmerica!