SNF Week 13: Broncos vs. Chiefs odds, preview and pick
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes rolls out of the pocket. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire)
December 3rd, 2020
NFL fans and bettors will be treated to a classic AFC West matchup between the Denver Broncos (4-7) and Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) from Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC). Oddsmakers have pegged this affair as one of the more lopsided ones of Week 13, but is it worth laying the points with Patrick Mahomes and company? Here’s our wagering preview.
Nowhere to go but up for Denver offense
The Broncos’ offense was completely ineffectual against the New Orleans Saints last week. They gained a mere 112 yards, with only 12 coming through the air on one completion to tight end Noah Fant in a 31-3 loss.
However, Denver was forced to play with practice squad wide receiver Kendall Hinton at quarterback due to a COVID-19 snafu in the quarterbacks room. Drew Lock should be back under center on Sunday.
After all QBs on the Broncos roster were placed on the COVID Reserve list, practice squad WR Kendall Hinton warms up as he prepares to start at QB for Denver. pic.twitter.com/CyHI1lVWV0
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 29, 2020
Recent Chiefs games have been nail-biters
The Chiefs have suffered three straight spread losses heading into Week 13.
They scraped by the Carolina Panthers by two points as a 10-point favorite going into their bye week. Then Andy Reid’s squad managed a mere four-point victory as 7.5-point favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders, before beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by only a field goal as 3.5-point favorites last Sunday.
Mahomes seals it for the Chiefs as they take down the Bucs, 27-24 🔥
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) November 30, 2020
(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/FxxmwaTzMv
Broncos’ rushing prowess could help keep game close, limit scoring
Considering the Saints’ defense knew what was coming, it was impressive to see the Broncos’ post 100 rushing yards in Sunday’s defeat. Melvin Gordon led all backs with 12 carries, while Philip Lindsay had nine, and Royce Freeman had eight.
Royce Freeman put him in the spin cycle 🌪️ @rolls_royce28 @Broncos
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) November 29, 2020
📺 #NOvsDEN on FOX pic.twitter.com/CQe5d2gpu6
The Chiefs’ stoppers rank just 24th in stopping the run (128.2 yards allowed per game), so Denver should be able to control the clock and move the chains on the ground.
Broncos and Chiefs statistics and rankings
| Team | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Passing Yards Allowed | Rushing Yards Allowed |
|---|
Denver Broncos | 211.7 (26th) | 113.5 (14th) | 210.1 (7th) | 131.3 (27th) |
Kansas City Chiefs | 314.5 (1st) | 111.3 (18th) | 232.5 (16th) | 128.2 (24th) |
Trends suggest Under bettors will cash
The Chiefs clearly have the more explosive of the two offenses, but the Broncos will not go down easily on Sunday. However, it’s hard to have faith in a Denver offense that’s 31st in points per game in 2020 (19) to cover. The Under seems like a wiser wager.
Denver has gone below the total in 12 of their last 15 games against division opponents. The Under is 10-4 in the Broncos’ last 14 games played in December.
Kansas City has an Over/Under record of 9-29-1 in its last 39 home games against teams with losing road records. The Chiefs have gone below the total in five of their last six December games.
The Under has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
Score prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 17
NFL Pick: Under
Wager on all NFL Week 13 games at BetAmerica!
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