NFL Playoffs: Seahawks poised to upset Packers
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson scrambles with the ball. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)
January 9th, 2020
The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs kicks off this weekend, and the best matchup will take place at Lambeau Field. The coaching edge has to go to Pete Carroll. While he’s made some strange strategical choices at times, this will be his 20th playoff game (11-8 record) and Matt LaFleur’s first. I’ll also give the quarterback edge to Seattle. Russell Wilson has been the better quarterback this season by just about any metric.
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET (FOX)
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Seattle Seahawks | +4 | +180 | O 47 |
Green Bay Packers | -4 | -225 | U 47 |
Green Bay has an advantage at running back
A substantial advantage can be given to Green Bay at running back. By most stats Aaron Jones has been a top five back in the NFL this year. He has been a large part of the offensive attack and is good for about 100 yards of offense and a touchdown per outing. Marshawn Lynch is fun, but his joint effort with Travis Homer—17 carries for 19 yards—in Philadelphia was not very inspiring.Wrote about the #Packers creating vertical throws for RB Aaron Jones in the game plan post.
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) January 9, 2020
Here’s an example from a piece we did at @NFLMatchup.
H Sail vs. Cover 3. Clear the CB & widen the flat defender. Target the outside 1/3 of the coverage. pic.twitter.com/q29ep0bCj6
These receiving corps are also not very prolific, but Tyler Lockett is the best on either side. Keep an eye on any scratches along the offensive line. Seattle has Duane Brown and Mike Iupati ailing and Green Bay has Bryan Bulaga and Corey Linsley on its injury report. I don’t feel like either offensive line has been particularly dominant, and both could become a mess with one or two substitutes filling in, but the advantage still goes to the Packers here, based on Football Outsiders advanced stats.
It’s more practical to compare back sevens. I see three guys playing at a high level in the back seven for the Seahawks—Bobby Wagner, Shaquill Griffin, and Quandre Diggs. For the Packers, I would place Jaire Alexander, Tramon Williams, Adrian Amos, and Chandon Sullivan in that category. Slight edge to GB.
The Packers' defensive line is a joke
The Packers defensive line is nearly the worst in the league in adjusted-line yards (31st), but is Seattle capable of taking advantage with a banged-up offensive line and their running backs averaging a yard per carry?It’s more practical to compare back sevens. I see three guys playing at a high level in the back seven for the Seahawks—Bobby Wagner, Shaquill Griffin, and Quandre Diggs. For the Packers, I would place Jaire Alexander, Tramon Williams, Adrian Amos, and Chandon Sullivan in that category. Slight edge to GB.
This game should go down to the wire
The Seahawks feel like a team held together by duct tape and superglue, but that duct tape is Wagner and the super glue is Wilson. Jadeveon Clowney and Lockett are going to have to show up, and there is a very real concern that Seattle’s much0-maligned pass defense will get torched by Aaron Rodgers. If this were a pick ‘em, I’d be on the other side, but getting four points, I have to roll with the Seahawks.NFL free pick: Seahawks +4
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