Scully’s Week 4 NFL Free Picks
September 27th, 2018
James Scully is coming off a strong 3-0-1 ATS run last weekend, and is ready to give you his Week 4 NFL Free Picks!
*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps
Minnesota Vikings +7.0 vs LOS ANGELES RAMS (Thursday 8:15 ET)
One team took last week off and the other delivered a peak performance. And Thursday night will be redemption time for Vikings and letdown city for Rams. Since the second half of the opener, Los Angeles has looked ready for Super Bowl and they couldn’t have been stopped by any team last week, piling up 521 yards of offense while embarrassing a well-regarded defense. QB Jared Goff performed like an MVP but don’t expect to see Rams steamroll every remaining opponent on schedule. Indeed, Rams likely to have hangover effect after sustaining huge losses in blowout win, with All-Pro cornerbacks Marcus Peters (calf) and Talib (ankle) both expected out Thursday. That’s a major setback against Minnesota (+6.5), which features one of the league’s best WR tandems in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. As we witnessed in Washington, Kirk Cousins can play Jekyll and Hyde; he rebounds from a clunker as well as any QB and Vikings were caught looking ahead against lowly Bills last week. The four-day turnaround benefits quality defensive unit (Minnesota held Buffalo to less than 200 yards of offense, basically giving them the game with offensive mistakes) and Minnesota was still smarting after kicking woes denied them a win at Green Bay the week before. Mike Zimmer will have his players’ attention this week and Vikings anxious to prove they belong in discussion of NFC’s top teams. Minnesota 5-0 ATS in last five meetings against the Rams and that trend continues Thursday evening!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Minnesota +7.0 over Los Angeles Rams!
Houston Texans +1.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Indianapolis has played fine defense the last two weeks and did a remarkable job keeping team in game last week despite only 209 total yards from a declining offense. Colts have easily been outgained the last two weeks, with Luck being forced to throw too much (133 pass attempts in three games) due to a limited ground game (RB Wilkins averaging only 40 yards per game), and Luck’s arm strength appeared dismal last week. Colts must now face a dangerous Houston (+1.5) attack that has 657 yards passing the last two weeks. Texans seeking to avoid 0-4 start and have lost nine straight. But they’ve dropped three games this season by a combined 15 points and dominated from a yardage standpoint the last two weeks; Texans failing to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Defense really let them down in first half last week but Houston possesses the personnel to field one of the league’s best defenses. Look for them to get things turned around with an inspired effort against a limited offense. Some trends are against the Texans, but Indy is 2-6 ATS in last eight games versus AFC South and underdog is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. And Colts have lost five of their last six home games. Houston gets first win versus struggling Colts!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Houston +1.5 over Indianapolis!
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 vs NEW YORK JETS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Letdowns and rebounds a common theme in the NFL. And we expect a much bigger bounce from home team in this match-up. New York Jets spending too much time on the field defensively, allowing Miami and Cleveland to score plenty of points in a single half of the last two games. Rookie QB Darnold has been struggling of late, recording more interceptions (5) than TDs (3) this season, and now goes up against the league’s best defense in the second of back-to-back road games. Jets reached out to Pittsburgh to inquire about trading for Le’veon Bell because Powell and Crowell are more complimentary RBs and don’t anticipate much from New York’s ground game. Jacksonville (-7.5) had the offense rolling in a thorough domination of New England two weeks ago, exacting a measure of revenge as they compiled 376 passing and 104 rushing yards, and were ranked #1 in the NFL in some polls afterward. But they came back flat versus Tennessee, displaying no zeal on either side of the ball, and this is an opportunity to get back on course before heading out to play four of their next five games on the road. RB Leonard Fournette is expected to return and Jets have lost six of their last seven road games. Jags haven’t been strong in the role of a heavy favorite but are 7-0 ATS after failing to score at least seven points versus a divisional rival. Expecting a double-digit victory!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Jacksonville -8.5 over New York!
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS (Sunday 4:05 ET)
Arizona had golden chance to earn their first win last week (led 14-3 at halftime) and blew the game in the 4th quarter. That has to sting and Cardinals now turn to rookie QB Josh Rosen, who is likely to struggle mightily behind a terrible offensive line. Arizona can’t move the ball offensively, averaging only 6.7 points and less than 200 yards per game, and it was disappointing to see defense give up so many rushing yards in 2nd half to a Chicago offense that can’t throw the ball effectively with Trubinsky. They’re now facing a Seattle (-3) team with momentum. Seahawks opened the season on the road against a pair of top defenses in Denver and Chicago and stayed close in both despite giving up 12 sacks. Seattle got back on course versus limited Dallas offense and poised to exploit another inept rival in this match-up. Love how Chris Carson continues to develop into a top RB, gaining 102 yards and TD versus stout Dallas run defense last week, and QB Wilson is only more dangerous when equipped with a ground game. Seattle pressured Dak Prescott throughout last week’s game and has enough defense to shut down Arizona, who has been an atrocious 1-7 ATS in last eight September games. Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to the desert and poised to get a convincing win on Sunday!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Seattle -3 over Arizona!
Baltimore Ravens +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 8:20 ET)
Pittsburgh sped to 30-10 halftime lead last week before getting shut out in 2nd half. And while they managed to hang on against Tampa, weaknesses continue to be exposed as RB Connor was stuffed on 14 of 15 carries and is averaging 39 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks. Steelers basically existing strictly on Roethlisberger’s arm because they can’t stop anybody and can’t run the ball themselves. As a result, he’s been forced to throw a league-leading 139 times over the first three weeks. Tampa applied plenty of pressure and Baltimore (+3) poised to frustrate Big Ben with a much more ferocious defensive attack. Ravens still stinging over bad 1st half in Cincinnati – they’ve outscored opposition in every other half this year – and QB Flacco enjoying career-best season with a plethora of weapons. Highly-effective offense has scored TDs in all 12 trips to the Red Zone this season and Baltimore had no turnovers last week against tough Denver defense. And they’re going to take advantage of a Steelers defense in disarray on a short week. Ravens 4-1 ATS in last five meetings and give us the points with the better team!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh!
*ATS (Against the Spread) / SU (Straight Up) * PK indicates pick *home team in caps
Minnesota Vikings +7.0 vs LOS ANGELES RAMS (Thursday 8:15 ET)
One team took last week off and the other delivered a peak performance. And Thursday night will be redemption time for Vikings and letdown city for Rams. Since the second half of the opener, Los Angeles has looked ready for Super Bowl and they couldn’t have been stopped by any team last week, piling up 521 yards of offense while embarrassing a well-regarded defense. QB Jared Goff performed like an MVP but don’t expect to see Rams steamroll every remaining opponent on schedule. Indeed, Rams likely to have hangover effect after sustaining huge losses in blowout win, with All-Pro cornerbacks Marcus Peters (calf) and Talib (ankle) both expected out Thursday. That’s a major setback against Minnesota (+6.5), which features one of the league’s best WR tandems in Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. As we witnessed in Washington, Kirk Cousins can play Jekyll and Hyde; he rebounds from a clunker as well as any QB and Vikings were caught looking ahead against lowly Bills last week. The four-day turnaround benefits quality defensive unit (Minnesota held Buffalo to less than 200 yards of offense, basically giving them the game with offensive mistakes) and Minnesota was still smarting after kicking woes denied them a win at Green Bay the week before. Mike Zimmer will have his players’ attention this week and Vikings anxious to prove they belong in discussion of NFC’s top teams. Minnesota 5-0 ATS in last five meetings against the Rams and that trend continues Thursday evening!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Minnesota +7.0 over Los Angeles Rams!
Houston Texans +1.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Indianapolis has played fine defense the last two weeks and did a remarkable job keeping team in game last week despite only 209 total yards from a declining offense. Colts have easily been outgained the last two weeks, with Luck being forced to throw too much (133 pass attempts in three games) due to a limited ground game (RB Wilkins averaging only 40 yards per game), and Luck’s arm strength appeared dismal last week. Colts must now face a dangerous Houston (+1.5) attack that has 657 yards passing the last two weeks. Texans seeking to avoid 0-4 start and have lost nine straight. But they’ve dropped three games this season by a combined 15 points and dominated from a yardage standpoint the last two weeks; Texans failing to take advantage of scoring opportunities. Defense really let them down in first half last week but Houston possesses the personnel to field one of the league’s best defenses. Look for them to get things turned around with an inspired effort against a limited offense. Some trends are against the Texans, but Indy is 2-6 ATS in last eight games versus AFC South and underdog is 4-1-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these teams. And Colts have lost five of their last six home games. Houston gets first win versus struggling Colts!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Houston +1.5 over Indianapolis!
Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5 vs NEW YORK JETS (Sunday 1:00 ET)
Letdowns and rebounds a common theme in the NFL. And we expect a much bigger bounce from home team in this match-up. New York Jets spending too much time on the field defensively, allowing Miami and Cleveland to score plenty of points in a single half of the last two games. Rookie QB Darnold has been struggling of late, recording more interceptions (5) than TDs (3) this season, and now goes up against the league’s best defense in the second of back-to-back road games. Jets reached out to Pittsburgh to inquire about trading for Le’veon Bell because Powell and Crowell are more complimentary RBs and don’t anticipate much from New York’s ground game. Jacksonville (-7.5) had the offense rolling in a thorough domination of New England two weeks ago, exacting a measure of revenge as they compiled 376 passing and 104 rushing yards, and were ranked #1 in the NFL in some polls afterward. But they came back flat versus Tennessee, displaying no zeal on either side of the ball, and this is an opportunity to get back on course before heading out to play four of their next five games on the road. RB Leonard Fournette is expected to return and Jets have lost six of their last seven road games. Jags haven’t been strong in the role of a heavy favorite but are 7-0 ATS after failing to score at least seven points versus a divisional rival. Expecting a double-digit victory!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Jacksonville -8.5 over New York!
Seattle Seahawks -3 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS (Sunday 4:05 ET)
Arizona had golden chance to earn their first win last week (led 14-3 at halftime) and blew the game in the 4th quarter. That has to sting and Cardinals now turn to rookie QB Josh Rosen, who is likely to struggle mightily behind a terrible offensive line. Arizona can’t move the ball offensively, averaging only 6.7 points and less than 200 yards per game, and it was disappointing to see defense give up so many rushing yards in 2nd half to a Chicago offense that can’t throw the ball effectively with Trubinsky. They’re now facing a Seattle (-3) team with momentum. Seahawks opened the season on the road against a pair of top defenses in Denver and Chicago and stayed close in both despite giving up 12 sacks. Seattle got back on course versus limited Dallas offense and poised to exploit another inept rival in this match-up. Love how Chris Carson continues to develop into a top RB, gaining 102 yards and TD versus stout Dallas run defense last week, and QB Wilson is only more dangerous when equipped with a ground game. Seattle pressured Dak Prescott throughout last week’s game and has enough defense to shut down Arizona, who has been an atrocious 1-7 ATS in last eight September games. Seahawks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five trips to the desert and poised to get a convincing win on Sunday!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Seattle -3 over Arizona!
Baltimore Ravens +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 8:20 ET)
Pittsburgh sped to 30-10 halftime lead last week before getting shut out in 2nd half. And while they managed to hang on against Tampa, weaknesses continue to be exposed as RB Connor was stuffed on 14 of 15 carries and is averaging 39 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks. Steelers basically existing strictly on Roethlisberger’s arm because they can’t stop anybody and can’t run the ball themselves. As a result, he’s been forced to throw a league-leading 139 times over the first three weeks. Tampa applied plenty of pressure and Baltimore (+3) poised to frustrate Big Ben with a much more ferocious defensive attack. Ravens still stinging over bad 1st half in Cincinnati – they’ve outscored opposition in every other half this year – and QB Flacco enjoying career-best season with a plethora of weapons. Highly-effective offense has scored TDs in all 12 trips to the Red Zone this season and Baltimore had no turnovers last week against tough Denver defense. And they’re going to take advantage of a Steelers defense in disarray on a short week. Ravens 4-1 ATS in last five meetings and give us the points with the better team!
Week 4 NFL Free Picks – Bet Baltimore +3 over Pittsburgh!
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